Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been a bit perplexing. It has been oscillating around 93,000, neither rising nor falling significantly. Over the past few days, many people have started asking, "Is something big brewing?" or worrying, "Will it suddenly crash?" Today, I want to analyze this market movement from the perspective of short-term holders.

Let's start with a basic concept: the realized price for short-term holders. Simply put, it is the average purchase cost of investors who have held their positions for less than 155 days. In other words, it's the short-term players' cost basis. Currently, BTC is around 93,000. If the price drops below this line, it means that most of the recent entrants over the past half-year are in a loss. An interesting phenomenon has emerged here—when in a loss, few people are eager to sell.

Why is that? It's quite simple: they can't bring themselves to cut their losses. When all short-term holders are in a loss, who has the motivation to realize profits? As a result, selling pressure is unexpectedly suppressed. But it's important to note that a weak sell-off doesn't necessarily signal a bull market. The problem is, although selling pressure is restrained, demand hasn't picked up either—there's no clear buying confirmation in the market.

It's like two people tugging on a rope, but neither is really pulling hard, so the rope just gets stuck. But "getting stuck" doesn't mean one side has won; it just indicates a stalemate. What's more concerning is that the SMA indicator continues to stay below the zero line, which suggests that market momentum remains weak.

The real test is still ahead. The $100,000 threshold is the key point that will determine the direction of this market movement. The current calm may only be a "trapped buffer" state. Once that passes, we'll be able to see the market's true intentions clearly.