Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives Original Link:

Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered amid a return of risk appetite, with market analysis indicating the rally is being led by spot trading rather than leveraged positions, according to research from Adler AM.

Adler AM’s composite derivatives pressure index indicates that:

• The index has returned to positive territory following December’s deleveraging period
• Divergence between price and open interest is negative, meaning BTC price has risen faster than OI—a classic signature of a healthier, spot-led rally
• The current regime is “Expansion (Moderate)”; risk rises if OI accelerates, divergence flips sharply positive, and liquidations spike without fresh spot support

Market Dynamics

The market has transitioned into a moderate expansion regime, with price growth outpacing the buildup of derivatives positions, indicating a spot-driven nature of the move. The composite index, which ranges from 0 to 5 and is normalized via a 90-day Z-Score, reflects aggregate derivatives pressure including open interest momentum, price momentum, divergence, acceleration, and absolute position levels.

The index entered positive territory after an extended period around zero and below in December. The current reading indicates moderate but not extreme optimism, remaining far from the “overheated” zone above +1.5.

Key Indicators

Divergence Pattern: Currently sits in negative territory, meaning price has risen more than open interest over the past week. This contrasts with mid-December, when divergence was sharply positive against a backdrop of falling prices, indicating short accumulation. Negative divergence is considered a sign of a spot-driven rally, which is historically more sustainable.

Regime Classification: The Expansion (Moderate) regime means both price and open interest are rising but not reaching extreme thresholds above the 80th percentile, representing a normal trend phase without signs of euphoria.

Risk Factors & Continuation Signals

Main Continuation Trigger: Price holding above current levels with gradual rather than explosive open interest growth.

Key Risk Markers:

• Sharp reversal of divergence into positive territory without price support, indicating excessive accumulation of speculative positions
• Open interest acceleration; if derivatives begin aggressively chasing price, this would increase the risk of a local correction
• A transition to Distribution would occur if open interest continues to rise while price reverses down
• Positive divergence above +5% with stagnating price signals key deterioration

Outlook

The composite index remains in the moderate expansion zone, with the divergence pattern confirming that spot demand is the driver. A sustained hold above +1.5 would trigger strengthening, while a pullback into negative territory accompanied by rising liquidations would signal deterioration. A transition to Strong Expansion would occur upon breaking upper thresholds on both indicators.