Valuation quick judgment rule, let's see how this framework works:



Product attribute items? Estimate roughly at 10 times the medium-term profit.

Regular companies or tokens? Use the 10 times forward PE of PE three years ahead as a reference.

Businesses with moat and genuine competitiveness? For these, you can assign a 20x forward PE because of stability and growth prospects.

Now there's a key variable—if the governance environment of the project has risks, or if policy uncertainty is high (the term called "mafia state model"), then apply a 30% discount, directly reducing by 30%.

This logical approach is very practical when evaluating on-chain projects at different stages. From infrastructure with stable cash flow to emerging protocols with high growth but volatility, adjusting multiples and discounts can quickly filter options.
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DuckFluffvip
· 01-08 17:23
The term "Mafia State Model" is brilliant; in reality, it just means discounting policy risk. This framework indeed has some reference value for valuations in the crypto space.
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StableNomadvip
· 01-07 21:19
ngl the 30% haircut for regulatory risk is where this framework actually gets real... everyone ignores it until they don't, reminds me of UST in May lmao. the 20x multiple on moats feels generous tho, statistically speaking most protocols don't survive their first bear cycle intact.
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PumpStrategistvip
· 01-07 12:48
10x, 20x, 30% off—this set of frameworks sounds very appealing, but in actual operation, the risk signals are often overlooked. The key part is the mafia state model—simply offering a 30% discount is not enough. Once the chip distribution becomes abnormal, the established long positions can explode in minutes.
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BearMarketSurvivorvip
· 01-07 05:57
The term "Mafia State Model" is quite accurate; indeed, current on-chain project valuations depend heavily on policy sentiment. This framework looks simple, but in practice, it's easy to encounter setbacks, especially with the 70% discount logic—sometimes the risks are much greater than 30%.
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MemeTokenGeniusvip
· 01-07 05:56
The term "Mafia State model" is spot on; offering a straight 30% discount is too harsh, but it indeed reflects reality.
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TokenomicsPolicevip
· 01-07 05:50
The term "Mafia state model" is brilliant. The logic of directly cutting prices by 30% is ruthless, but I don't know how to judge where that line is.
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ImpermanentPhobiavip
· 01-07 05:41
The name "Mafia State Model" is really clever haha, offering a straight 30% off without holding back
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just_another_fishvip
· 01-07 05:31
Well, this framework sounds good, but in reality, who can really accurately judge that policy discount... Often, after the discount, you realize you've been taken for a ride.
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