Frankly, it's still just those four variables going in circles. The AI part is the most mysterious, and who knows if anyone can really break through.
Political risk really can't be underestimated this time. History has taught us that lesson.
Just treat economic data as a black swan—can't dodge it anyway.
The backstop sounds good, just worried it might suddenly change course.
If the AI ceiling is too low, this market situation will be really awkward.
Once elections cause trouble, sentiment shifts incredibly fast. Hard lessons in blood, man.
I agree with the policy floor, but the real ROI opportunity still lies at the node where AI technology delivers results. Looking at past cycles, breakthroughs in technology that trigger explosive growth in computing power demand are often the source of outsized returns.
However, elections are indeed easy to underestimate—market sentiment volatility often outpaces fundamental changes. I'd suggest focusing on the magnitude of expectation revisions rather than the policies themselves.
Economic data disruptions are normal; treat short-term fluctuations as opportunities to position. Long-term, the earnings cycle from technology iteration is more worthy of tracking.
2026年の市場展望についての思考。私の核心的な論理は実はそれほど複雑ではない：政策面に支えられ、AIの天井が市場の高さと深さを決定し、経済データが時折混乱をもたらし、中期選挙の結果が市場の期待を大きく左右する。
まず政策面から。こちらは比較的確実性が高く、予想はほぼ安定しており、資産価格に底支えの役割を果たす。
次にAIだが、これは真の変数である。技術的なブレークスルーが実現するかどうかは、直接的に市場全体が上昇に向かうのか下落に向かうのかを左右し、市場の上限と下限を決定する。
経済面は予期せぬ事態が起こりやすい——失業率の突然の悪化やインフレの反発などがリズムを乱すこともあるが、通常は短期的な揺らぎに過ぎない。
最後に中期選挙の政治的変動。周期はまだ遠いが、一旦選挙情勢に転換が生じると、市場のセンチメントは急激に変化し、期待の修正幅は実際の政策差異を超えることが多い。このリスクを軽視してはならない。