#比特币价格走势 Seeing Tom Lee's explanation actually reminded me of some details from the 2017 cycle. Back then, I often saw similar "contradictions"—saying they were long-term bullish while being extremely cautious in their operations. Only later did I realize that this isn't really a contradiction, but a trade-off between two dimensions.

The coexistence of short-term defense and long-term optimism makes sense to me. At the fund level, risk management, portfolio balancing, and responsibility to LPs naturally require a protective stance during liquidity pressures; but macro cycle judgments indeed point toward a long-term upward trend—these two are on different time scales.

However, after experiencing so many cycles, what I care more about is: how many times has this narrative been validated in history? At the end of 2018, someone said the same thing; in 2022, it was said again—each time claiming that there might be a short-term correction but no long-term problem. The issue is, for holders, "short-term" often means several years, and not many can stomach the drawdowns over those years.

Bitcoin's current position is indeed interesting—it’s not far from its all-time high, but the fundamentals still have significant variables. The defense level between $60,000 and $65,000, honestly, if it really reaches that point, would be a very good observation point. History shows us that key support levels often determine the subsequent momentum.

But rather than obsessing over whether there will be a short-term correction, I prefer to look at the overall market structure changes—institutional participation, policy environment, macro liquidity—these are the real variables that determine how far the cycle can go.