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The non-ferrous metals sector has recently been quite interesting. Have you noticed that from precious metals to rare metals, from related ETFs to individual stocks, the overall trend is strengthening? Many investors have already sensed the signals of this market movement.
Where does this momentum come from? Let's first look at the external environment. The Federal Reserve's internal stance on interest rate cuts is still not unified, with hawks and doves holding different views—some advocate for a cut of over 100 basis points this year, while others believe that current interest rates have already reached a neutral level. Under this uncertainty, the non-farm payrolls data this Friday has become a key variable, directly determining the short-term policy direction of the Federal Reserve. For market participants, this is the "barometer" of the non-ferrous metals sector. If the non-farm data leans dovish, expectations of rate cuts will rise, and the non-ferrous sector is likely to continue upward.
Now, let's see how professional institutions view this. Leading research firms like Guojin Securities have pointed out three key areas worth paying attention to. Regarding gold, once overseas enters a rate-cutting cycle, institutional and individual investors' interest in gold ETFs will increase. Coupled with the continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks worldwide, the long-term trend is undoubtedly upward. Silver also looks promising—it is supported by industrial demand (raw materials for photovoltaics and electronics) as well as financial investment demand. Currently, inventories are still declining, and the medium-term upside potential is quite clear. As for lithium, although the growth rate of capacity is slowing, the energy storage industry has been particularly hot in the past two years. Once supply and demand improve, prices may exceed market expectations.
If you want to participate in this market trend, directly tracking the indices of the non-ferrous metals industry is also a good approach. By following related products of domestic non-ferrous metal indices, you can gain exposure to the entire industry chain in one move, without the hassle of selecting individual stocks. These products typically select about 50 companies within the industry with good size and liquidity, making them highly representative.
Overall, before the non-farm payroll data is released, the non-ferrous sector has already been reacting in advance. This precisely indicates the market’s confidence in this direction. Gold, silver, and lithium—these three sub-sectors—whether by directly buying related stocks or participating through index funds, can be effective ways to follow market trends.