#我的2026第一条帖

2026 Bitcoin Investment Strategy Fantasies--First Drop, Then Rise, Short at 100K, Close at 70K?
2026 has started off well in the crypto world, with Bitcoin's daily chart showing six consecutive gains, rekindling hope among many "leeks" brothers who were already preparing to exit the scene to speculate on gold and silver. So, what should be the investment strategy for 2026's big coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum? Little God of Wealth shares his views. The following content is purely a fantasy; if there are similarities, it only proves that Little God of Wealth is very awesome. Please like it 😉😉😉

1. 2026 Bitcoin Market Environment Analysis
1. Confirmation of Bear Market Characteristics
The 2026 Bitcoin market continues the bear trend from 2025, showing the following features:
- Continuous price decline: Bitcoin prices have been falling from the 2025 highs, with a lack of sustained upward momentum
- Shrinking trading volume: Market activity has significantly decreased, retail participation is reduced
- Cautious institutional attitude: Mainstream financial institutions remain reserved about Bitcoin investments, with limited capital inflow
- Accelerated industry consolidation: Some crypto companies face survival pressures, and market cleanup is ongoing
2. Macroeconomic Impact
The global macroeconomic environment in 2026 exerts pressure on the Bitcoin market:
- Federal Reserve policies: Continued rate hikes put risk assets under pressure
- Economic slowdown: Growth expectations for major economies are lowered, affecting risk appetite
- Inflation pressures: Although inflation has eased, it remains above central bank targets
- Geopolitical risks: Uncertainty from international situations like Venezuela, Iran, Russia-Ukraine conflicts increases market risk aversion

2. Detailed Explanation of the "100000 Short - 70000 Close" Strategy
1. Strategy Logic Foundation
- Technical analysis support: The recent rally starting from the new year is expected to continue, with weekly charts indicating that Bitcoin has the momentum to surge toward the bull-bear dividing line around 100,000
- Market psychology: Whole number levels often trigger long-short battles, making them suitable as short entry points
- Capital flow analysis: Institutional sell orders are concentrated above 100,000
- Volatility expectations: Historical data shows significant volatility increase in this region
2. Operation Step Analysis
- Short entry timing: When Bitcoin approaches $100,000, observe the following indicators:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is it in overbought territory above 70?
- Trading volume: Is there abnormal expansion?
- Important economic data releases
- On-chain data: Are large holders selling off?
- Position management: Start with 15-20% of total capital, set stop-loss above $102,000, and adopt a pyramiding strategy, adding 5% each time it drops by $5,000
- Close position timing: First target at $95,000 — close 30%; second target at $90,000 — close 50%; final target near $70,000 — close all short positions
- Closing basis: Monitor capital inflow at the $70,000 support level

3. Detailed Explanation of the "Near 70,000 Long" Strategy
1. Long logic support
- Historical support validation: $70,000 is an important support level from the 2024 bull market
- Institutional capital entry: On-chain data shows large buy orders in the $70,000-$75,000 range
- Technical indicator signals: MACD may show bottom divergence
- Market sentiment indicator: Fear index reaches extreme levels
2. Operation steps
- Entry timing analysis: Establish a 20% position when the price first hits $70,000; add 30% on the second test of $70,000; after stabilizing above $70,000, add 50%
- Risk management: Set stop-loss below $65,000, use a trailing stop-loss strategy, and adjust stop-loss as the price rises; maximum position should not exceed 60% of total capital
- Target prices: First target at $85,000 — close 30%; second at $95,000 — close 50%; third at $110,000 — close remaining 20%
4. Strategy Risk Control and Precautions
1. Main risk factors
- Market liquidity risk: Liquidity may suddenly dry up in a bear market
- Policy risk: Regulatory changes may trigger sharp market fluctuations
- Technical risk: Exchange or wallet security issues
- Operational risk: Errors in trade execution or system failures
2. Risk control measures
- Position control: No single trade exceeds 20% of total capital
- Stop-loss setting: Every trade must have a stop-loss
- Diversified investment: Do not invest all funds in a single asset like Bitcoin
- Continuous monitoring: 24-hour market and account monitoring