#数字资产动态追踪 The Japanese financial market is at a turning point. The 10-year government bond yield surged to 1.83%, the yen forcefully broke through the 158 level, and the government's sweeping stimulus plans further disrupted the situation. This is not just Japan’s issue—global liquidity is also being affected.

The Bank of Japan is now in a dilemma:
• Raise interest rates, and the pile of government bonds will plummet in value
• Keep rates unchanged, and the yen will face continuous depreciation pressure

The key is that those massive yen arbitrage trades are now moving in the opposite direction. The global market has enjoyed years of "yen dividends"—cheap, low-interest funds everywhere—now that this is coming to an end. After Japan’s rate hikes in 2024, Bitcoin dropped 23% in a week. This time, the impact will be even greater.

The crypto market needs to prepare for two scenarios:
• In the short term, arbitrage capital may withdraw and cause sell-offs, with leveraged assets hit hardest
• Looking ahead, continued yen depreciation could push some smart money into crypto assets for hedging

Pay close attention to these signals:
• Will the 30-year Japanese government bond yield break through 3.5%?
• Will the yen/dollar exchange rate break 160?
• Will the Nikkei index and the government bond market collapse together?

While the Federal Reserve may still be on the path of rate cuts, Japan might be raising rates, with the two directions clashing fiercely. If US economic data remains strong, the global markets could be squeezed by both forces—unable to fully hedge risks, yet unable to find opportunities. It all depends on how investors navigate this narrow passage.