ETF capital inflows may reach new highs; Matrixport predicts it will become a key driver of Bitcoin's price by 2026

According to the latest news, Matrixport issued a statement indicating that although there are fluctuations in Bitcoin ETF capital inflows, the scale remains substantial, with $34 billion flowing in 2024 and an additional $22 billion in 2025. Analysts believe that this cyclical adjustment signals the possibility of stronger capital inflows in 2026, which could become a key factor in driving up the price of the coin.

The True Reflection of ETF Capital Inflows

Year-over-year data comparison

The capital inflow for these two years is quite significant, totaling over $56 billion. It is worth noting that this sustained buying pressure provides strong support for Bitcoin prices. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $92,467, with a 7-day increase of 4.47%, a market cap share of 58.22%, and high market activity, which aligns well with the continuous inflow of ETF funds.

Changes in the flow rhythm in 2025

Although the total inflow in 2025 is $22 billion, the pace of capital inflow is not uniform:

• Q1: Slow start due to expectations of Trump tariffs impact
• Mid-year (up to late October FOMC meeting): The inflow speed was actually faster than the same period in 2024
• Mid-year: Capital flow accelerates sharply
• Q4: Stagnation occurs

Cyclical Adjustment vs Structural Issues

Matrixport’s core judgment is that this adjustment is more cyclical than structural. This distinction is very important:

• Cyclical Adjustment: Means the slowdown in capital inflow is a short-term phenomenon, with potential recovery afterward
• Structural Issue: Implies a fundamental change in ETF market demand itself

Analysts believe that the stagnation in Q4 belongs to the former, providing logical support for a new round of capital inflow in 2026.

Expectations for 2026

Based on the above analysis, Matrixport predicts that 2026 may usher in a new and potentially stronger wave of Bitcoin ETF capital inflows. This expectation is based on several key factors:

• The cyclical adjustment in 2025 has been completed, and the market may enter a new accumulation phase
• ETFs, as the main tool for institutional investment in Bitcoin, directly reflect institutional demand
• The current price performance (recent upward trend) already indicates market optimism about the future

According to existing information, if capital inflows indeed become stronger in 2026, this will serve as an important catalyst for pushing up the coin’s price.

Summary

Bitcoin ETF capital inflows have become a vital support for the coin’s price. The $56 billion accumulated over 2024-2025 clearly demonstrates this. Although seasonal stagnation appeared at the end of 2025, Matrixport believes this is a cyclical rather than structural adjustment, indicating that 2026 could see even stronger capital inflows. For market participants, this means continuously monitoring ETF capital flows as an important indicator for judging price trends.