XAU/USD Climbs Above $4,100 as Markets Await Delayed September Jobs Data and Fed Rate Signals

Gold bounces higher amid delayed NFP report and policy uncertainty

The precious metal XAU/USD has climbed to around $4,110 during Thursday’s early Asian trading, buoyed by a mix of economic caution and anticipation surrounding key labor market data. The September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report—which faced a 43-day delay due to the government shutdown—is now in focus as traders reassess the health of the US employment sector and what it might mean for Federal Reserve policy ahead.

Why the jobs report matters for Gold prices

The delayed jobs data carries extra weight this week because it will help the Fed fine-tune its view of the labor market amid broader economic uncertainty. A softer-than-expected employment report could strengthen the case for another interest rate cut in December, which would be supportive for Gold. This is because lower rates reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets and make non-yielding precious metals like Gold more attractive as a store of value.

Conversely, if the NFP surprise to the upside, it could dampen bets on further rate cuts and put pressure on XAU/USD in the near term.

Fed officials show cracks in rate-cut consensus

The most recent signals from the Federal Reserve reveal division among policymakers about future monetary policy. Minutes from the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that while officials voted for a 25 basis point rate cut, not everyone agreed on a repeat performance in December. Some members flagged concerns about cutting rates too quickly, especially if inflation remains sticky.

This divided stance has shifted market expectations dramatically. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in roughly a 30% probability of a December rate cut—a sharp drop from the 60% odds seen just one week prior. Such a shift reflects growing caution about the Fed’s willingness to keep lowering borrowing costs.

What comes next for Gold and XAU/USD

Gold’s safe-haven appeal is being reinforced by the current environment of policy ambiguity and soft economic signals. If the September NFP disappoints, expect XAU/USD to test higher levels, as traders would likely rush to price in greater odds of a December cut. On the flip side, a stronger jobs report could trim those rate-cut expectations further and weigh on the yellow metal in the session ahead.