#比特币市场分析 Hayes's logic indeed warrants careful consideration—The Bank of Japan's insistence on a negative real interest rate policy means that a continuous flow of arbitrage capital will seek an outlet. The yen's depreciation to 200 is just an appearance; behind it is the broader logic of global liquidity reallocation.

The figure of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars sounds aggressive, but if you place it in the context of dollar devaluation, capital outflows from emerging markets, and declining yields on traditional assets, it’s not so far-fetched. The key is the time frame—this is not a matter for this year.

The most practical insight here is: When central bank policies create clear arbitrage windows, capital flows tend to be more predictable than fundamentals. I am currently focusing on how traders sensitive to macro policies adjust their positions, especially how they allocate between dollar assets and cryptocurrencies. This can reveal trends one or two months earlier than purely technical analysis.

If you want to follow trades, don’t be blinded by the figure of one million dollars—choose traders with clear logical chains, observe how they set stop-losses, and how they phase their positions. Combining aggressive directional judgment with conservative risk management is the long-term posture for survival.