The intense ups and downs of 2025 have become a memory, but the market in 2026 is quietly changing the game. Shifting from purely emotion-driven to macro factor battles, Bitcoin has officially entered the true test of the post-halving cycle after last year's high correction. The question before us is straightforward: will it evolve into the ultimate form of digital gold, or will it plunge into a long bear market abyss?

The complexity of the macro environment is more important than ever. The global economic situation is more tangled than ever, and these external factors will directly influence Bitcoin's price movements.

The first variable is the trust crisis in the fiat currency system. The debt levels of major economies are still expanding, and the traditional monetary system's reliance on excessive issuance has never stopped. There is a common understanding in the market: as long as the debt-driven financial system continues to operate, demand for "hard assets" like Bitcoin will not fade.

The second variable comes from the interest rate cut cycle. In 2026, global central banks' interest rate policies may enter a "stability period" or trigger a "reflation." Once inflation rears its head again, institutional funds will compete to buy Bitcoin as an anti-inflation tool.

The third variable is geopolitical uncertainty. Uncertainty still dominates the international stage in 2026. Amidst these turbulences, Bitcoin's position as a "safe-haven asset" and "transnational liquidity asset" is becoming increasingly solidified.

The key themes for the next half year (first half of 2026) are "bottoming out and convergence." After the pullback in Q4 2025, the first half of the year is mainly a process of reconfiguring positions. The market needs time to digest these uncertainties.