#流动性与利率政策 The internal voices within the Federal Reserve are beginning to show interesting divergence—Hasset is talking about the three-month moving average, arguing that inflation is actually below target, paving the way for rate cuts; meanwhile, Hamak has stated that they will keep rates steady until spring, with more concern about sticky inflation. This kind of policy uncertainty actually has a pretty direct impact on our follow-trade strategies.

The swings in liquidity expectations will directly change the performance cycles of traders with different styles. Having observed many experts adjusting their positions at these critical junctures—aggressive traders will preemptively position for rate cuts, while conservative traders will reduce risk exposure before policies are actually implemented. The key is to identify the reaction pattern of the trader you are following when faced with policy disagreements: do they rely on data-driven signals or do they act early based on political intuition?

Recently, while reviewing several accounts, I found that one trader, when liquidity expectations are uncertain, will proactively reduce the size of individual positions and increase diversification across trading pairs—this is actually a good reference. Instead of betting on a direction based on policy disagreements, it’s better to let the market reveal the true pricing logic.

Experience proves that no matter how eloquently the Federal Reserve speaks, ultimately it depends on how the market trades this divergence. When choosing someone to follow, it’s worth paying attention to those traders who can maintain discipline amid policy haze—they tend to last longer.