Michael Saylor posts another mysterious tweet, Strategy may initiate a new round of Bitcoin accumulation?

January 4, 2025, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted a tweet on social platform X containing only the phrase “Orange or Green?” and a chart, quickly sparking widespread speculation in the crypto community about the possibility of his company making another Bitcoin purchase. Historically, similar concise signals have appeared multiple times before Strategy publicly disclosed Bitcoin acquisitions.

(Source: X)

Although this tweet did not announce any new transactions, it successfully refocused market attention on this “Bitcoin-native” publicly listed company’s massive holdings: as of press time, its 672,497 Bitcoins are valued at over $61 billion, with unrealized gains of approximately $10.87 billion. Meanwhile, analysts note that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium indicator, reflecting US institutional demand, has begun to recover, possibly indicating that institutional capital flow is re-entering the market. However, Strategy’s stock price is hovering near the “market cap below its Bitcoin asset net worth” danger threshold, and its unique business model faces a severe test amid market volatility.

Saylor’s “Crypto Morse Code”: How a Tweet Can Shake the Market

At the start of 2025, Michael Saylor once again became the focus of the crypto world with his signature metaphorical communication style. On January 4, he posted the “Orange or Green?” tweet on X, accompanied by a chart from StrategyTracker.com showing the company’s Bitcoin purchase history. Like a stone cast into a pond, it instantly ignited investors’ imaginations. This is not the first time Saylor has used such concise signals. Looking back at his past records, short phrases like “Light Blue?” or “Forward!” often served as preludes to market warm-up for Strategy’s large-scale Bitcoin purchases. Therefore, “Orange or Green?” is widely interpreted as a potential buy signal, even though the company’s official channels did not announce any purchase along with the tweet.

The brilliance of this communication strategy lies in its clever use of Saylor’s personal brand and Strategy’s corporate image being deeply intertwined. As a “prophet” who has shifted the company’s balance sheet entirely into Bitcoin, his words and actions are seen by the market as a barometer of institutional confidence and activity in Bitcoin. The chart attached to this tweet, detailing 91 independent purchase events since the launch of the “Bitcoin Strategy” in August 2020, visually reaffirms the firm’s “continuous accumulation” commitment. This operation not only maintains market attention but also subtly reinforces Strategy’s narrative as a “model Bitcoin-listed company.”

Market reactions were swift and multi-dimensional. On one hand, Bitcoin enthusiasts and Strategy investors see this as a positive signal, expecting the company to leverage market volatility or cash flows to buy more. On the other hand, broader market participants are reassessing the outlook for institutional demand for Bitcoin. Saylor’s tweet comes amid Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 2022 bear market lows and recent consolidation, amplifying its symbolic significance. It reminds everyone that beyond spot ETFs, corporate treasury Bitcoin holdings remain a strong narrative, led by Strategy as the “pioneer.”

Deep Dive into Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury: Data, Costs, and Strategic Resolve

To understand the weight behind Saylor’s tweet, one must examine Strategy’s massive Bitcoin holdings. According to its latest official filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as of the end of December 2024, the company holds 672,497 Bitcoins. This figure was accumulated through continuous purchases, with a total acquisition cost of $50.44 billion, averaging about $74,997 per Bitcoin.

At the current Bitcoin price of approximately $91,359, Strategy’s Bitcoin assets are worth over $61 billion. This means the company has unrealized gains of about $10.87 billion, with a return of roughly 21.56%. This “paper profit” is central to Strategy’s business model and a key support for its stock price. The most recent recorded increase occurred between December 22 and 28, 2024, when it bought 1,229 Bitcoins at an average price of about $88,568, totaling approximately $108.8 million. Even at relatively high Bitcoin prices, its accumulation pace has not slowed.

Key Data on Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings

Total holdings: 672,497 BTC

Total acquisition cost: $50.44 billion

Average cost: $74,997 per BTC

Current market value (at ~$91,359): approx. $61.4 billion

Unrealized gains: approx. $10.87 billion

Number of purchase events: 91

Recent activity (late December 2025): bought 1,229 BTC at an average of $88,600

Strategy’s “Bitcoin Treasury” strategy is essentially a bold financial experiment: heavily betting the company’s assets on a highly volatile digital asset, using it as a long-term store of value. Saylor has repeatedly argued that, in the context of global fiat inflation, holding Bitcoin is far superior to holding cash or short-term government bonds. This successful execution has made Strategy’s stock highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price, serving as a leveraged proxy for retail investors to participate indirectly in the Bitcoin market. However, this high correlation also acts as a double-edged sword—when Bitcoin’s price declines, the company’s stock may face greater pressure.

Signs of Institutional Demand Rebound: Decoding Coinbase Premium Recovery

While the market reacted to Saylor’s tweet, another key on-chain indicator also sent positive signals. Noted analyst Ted on X pointed out that Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium (Coinbase Premium) is beginning to recover. This indicator is crucial for gauging institutional capital flows. The Coinbase premium typically measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase versus other major centralized exchanges (CEX). Since Coinbase is the most compliant and preferred platform among traditional financial institutions in the US, an increasing premium is often seen as a sign of rising demand from US-based institutional investors.

Ted’s analysis suggests that the demand environment is shifting. He noted, “Bitcoin performance in Q4 2024 was very weak,” reminiscent of the pressures during the 2022 bear market. However, the recent rebound in the premium may indicate that, after a period of waiting or profit-taking, institutional buyers are re-entering. This demand resurgence could be related to macroeconomic outlook adjustments, regulatory clarity, or simply asset rebalancing at the start of the fiscal year.

Subtle changes in institutional demand are among the core variables influencing Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term trajectory. Since multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved and launched in the US, institutional entry channels have become more streamlined and regulated. As a custodian partner for several ETF issuers, Coinbase’s trading activity can more directly reflect the movements of “whale” investors. Therefore, the recovery of the premium is not only a short-term price signal but also a sign of market health. It suggests that the fundamental buying power supporting Bitcoin prices—institutional capital—may not have left but is waiting for the right moment to re-enter.

This signal resonates interestingly with Saylor’s tweet. On one hand, Strategy, as a corporate holding benchmark, represents “corporate demand”; on the other hand, Coinbase premium reflects broader “institutional and qualified investor demand.” If these signals align, they could help build a more solid psychological and technical bottom for Bitcoin in the short term.

Dancing on the Edge: Strategy’s Stock Price and the Dangerous “mNAV” Threshold

Behind the shiny Bitcoin holdings, Strategy’s own stock price is walking a fine line. Although it rose slightly by 1.22% this morning, it has plunged 66% since its July 2024 peak. Currently, the market is most concerned with a technical indicator called “mNAV” (market cap to net asset value ratio), which has fallen to a critical level of 1.02.

mNAV is a key metric for assessing the valuation safety margin of Strategy’s stock. It is calculated as: (Total market cap + debt – cash) / total Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV exceeds 1, it indicates the market is paying a premium for the company’s operational and strategic value beyond its net Bitcoin assets. When it drops below 1, in theory, the stock’s market cap is even less than its Bitcoin net worth, posing a severe challenge to the rationale of holding the stock—investors might ask: why not just buy Bitcoin directly instead of a company whose value is less than its underlying assets?

Currently, Strategy’s total market cap is about $47 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings are valued close to $60 billion. From this perspective, the company’s market cap is below its Bitcoin assets, creating a delicate and risky situation. If mNAV officially falls below 1, the stock could face a new wave of selling pressure, especially from traders who are not Bitcoin “true believers.” Saylor himself appears to be trying to maintain market confidence; he recently shared a chart showing that the company’s open interest in unhedged contracts is about 87% of its market cap, implying high trading activity and attention (despite many short positions). He even posted an AI-generated image of a “taming polar bear,” rich in metaphor.

Below the critical mNAV=1 line, there exists another more tense line of defense: the average cost of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings (around $74,000). If Bitcoin’s price falls below this level, it would mean the company’s Bitcoin market value is below its historical total acquisition cost, resulting in “paper losses.” For investors who strongly believe in Strategy’s story, this could be seen as a buying opportunity, as the stock discount would become very large. But for the overall market, it would be a major stress test for the “corporate Bitcoin holding” business model.

How Do Bitcoin Spot ETFs Reshape Strategy’s Narrative?

Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US in early 2024, a question has been unavoidable: will ETFs weaken Strategy’s unique investment value? After all, ETFs offer traditional investors a more convenient, liquid, and often cheaper way to gain Bitcoin exposure. This indeed challenges Strategy’s “Bitcoin proxy stock” narrative.

However, deeper analysis reveals that their positioning differs and may even be complementary. First, Strategy is not a pure trust or fund; it is an operating company with actual business (enterprise analysis software). Its Bitcoin holdings are part of a treasury asset strategy, which has strategic and corporate finance implications that passive ETFs cannot replicate. Second, Strategy’s stock, to some extent, provides a “leveraged” Bitcoin exposure. By issuing bonds and equity to finance Bitcoin purchases, its stock’s price movements historically tend to outperform Bitcoin during rallies. Conversely, it also experiences higher volatility during downturns, attracting certain risk-tolerant investors.

Furthermore, Saylor’s personal influence and the company’s proactive, continuous accumulation create a “managed Bitcoin fund” effect, different from passive tracking ETFs. In the crypto space, narrative and leadership are valuable. Despite ETF siphoning off some of the simple, low-cost demand, Strategy’s strategic depth, first-mover advantage, and Saylor’s “prophet” image still secure a unique and important position in the crypto ecosystem.

How Do Market Participants View Strategy? The Eternal Tug Between Believers and Skeptics

The debate around Strategy essentially mirrors the microcosm of Bitcoin’s long-term value belief. Market participants generally fall into two camps: “believers” and “skeptics.”

Believers see Strategy as a pioneer and exemplar. They believe Saylor’s bold move to Bitcoin-ize the company’s balance sheet is a visionary capital allocation decision, betting early on the future of digital gold. They invest in MSTR stock not only for Bitcoin exposure but also for confidence in Saylor and his team’s ability to execute this long-term strategy. For them, a mNAV below 1 is even a rare “discounted buy” opportunity, as the stock offers potential alpha beyond spot Bitcoin.

Skeptics focus on its risks and vulnerabilities. They question whether overly tying the company’s fate to a highly volatile asset aligns with good corporate governance. They point out that Strategy’s debt-financed Bitcoin purchases increase costs in a rising interest rate environment, and its high beta makes it vulnerable in bear markets. For them, a fall below mNAV=1 signals fundamental flaws in the business model and is a dangerous sign to avoid rather than buy the dip.

This ongoing debate will ultimately be decided by Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Regardless of stance, Strategy has already carved its place in crypto financial history, becoming one of the most notable cases of institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Saylor’s simple “Orange or Green?” question echoes far beyond market speculation—it triggers deep reflections on corporate strategy, asset valuation, and the future of digital currencies.