Can the US economy withstand 2026? This question has recently sparked quite a bit of discussion on Wall Street. Renowned analyst Rosenberg, who previously worked at Merrill Lynch, has recently expressed a rather pessimistic view: the current unemployment rate has jumped from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4.6%. If this trend continues, breaking 5% and even approaching 6% is not just a pipe dream.

Where is the problem? This is not just a mild adjustment in the labor market but a real signal of employment contraction. Once the job market can't hold up, the risk of an economic recession will approach step by step. The Federal Reserve may be forced to take aggressive actions—cutting interest rates five times before the end of the year, with a cumulative reduction possibly reaching 125 basis points.

Interestingly, Rosenberg is not particularly worried about inflation. Based on current indicators, price increases are very likely to gradually return to the 2% target level. But what if the economy really starts to shrink? How will BTC and other cryptocurrencies perform—will they fall first and then rebound, or will they ride the wave straight through? This is a question worth pondering carefully in the market.