At the recent American Economic Association annual meeting, several senior officials and economists issued numerous warnings. The core issue points to a phenomenon: the pressure from government debt may be affecting the independent decision-making of central banks.

According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion this year. More concerning is that the ratio of national debt to GDP will surpass the 100% mark, and in ten years, it could rise to around 118%. This number sounds alarming—it means that the US debt problem is not a short-term pain but a structural risk.

Why is this critical for the crypto community? Because once fiscal pressure becomes too great, policymakers may covertly pressure the central bank to adopt more easing policies. Simply put: when government debt increases, it will want the central bank to cut interest rates, reducing the government's debt servicing costs. But this directly threatens the independence of the central bank—the central bank should focus solely on price stability and employment, not be hostage to fiscal demands.

Interestingly, economists have expressed concern about the current government's risk awareness. They believe decision-makers still do not fully recognize the severity of debt risks. Past administrations, even if they did not take effective action, at least understood the danger at a strategic level; but the current situation may be more unsettling—there is a complete lack of regard for this issue.

What does this mean? It suggests that there may be no proactive budget reforms in the near future unless a crisis truly occurs, forcing the implementation of bipartisan agreements. Each such uncertainty will cause ripples in global capital markets—including the cryptocurrency market. Any fluctuation in US dollar policy directly impacts market risk appetite and liquidity expectations.