Stop obsessing over the ups and downs of altcoins. What truly determines the life and death of the crypto market is the impending liquidity crisis triggered by the US financial system. The destructive power of this hidden risk far exceeds any project failures or contract liquidations.

The root cause is simple: by 2026, the US will face over $4 trillion in debt maturities. Meanwhile, interest rates have already soared above 4%. The government will have to choose between raising taxes, continuing to issue debt, or printing more money—each option means a contraction of market liquidity. As a high-risk asset class, cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to liquidity changes. Once the dollar comes under pressure, mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be among the first to decline, and highly leveraged contract traders will be liquidated in batches.

History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. The massive liquidity injection in 2020 fueled the entire crypto bull market; the rate hike cycle in 2022 directly crushed the market; and the debt crisis in 2026 may combine the pain of the previous two.

How to survive? The strategy is actually simple. First, keep contract positions within 10%, with leverage kept to almost none. Second, focus on mainstream coins with strong liquidity, and stay away from high-valuation, low-liquidity altcoin projects. Most importantly, maintain sufficient cash reserves. When the market truly crashes, panic selling will create rare opportunities for bottom-fishing.

Opportunities in the crypto market are always present. What is truly scarce is the principal capital to survive until the moment the opportunity arrives. While most people chase hot topics, forward-looking individuals are already preparing in advance.