After a $30 billion leverage wipeout, how will the crypto market迎接 the new cycle in 2026

Matrixport’s latest analysis indicates that since October 2025, the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets have cumulatively deleveraged nearly $30 billion in leverage. This large-scale deleveraging is seen as a market self-healing process, laying a more solid foundation for 2026. Currently, BTC is priced at $92,775.76, up 4.28% over the past 7 days, seemingly validating this assessment.

What Does Deleveraging Mean

Signal of Market Self-Healing

The deleveraging process in the derivatives market may seem intense, but in reality, it is the market digesting excessive speculative sentiment. Since the October 2025 peak, the open interest in futures contracts has deleveraged by nearly $30 billion, meaning a large number of high-leverage positions have been liquidated or reduced.

Although this process may cause short-term price fluctuations, it is healthy in the long run. Just as financial markets periodically need to “clear bubbles,” the crypto market is self-regulating through deleveraging, clearing out unsustainable speculative positions.

Why This Is Beneficial for 2026

According to Matrixport’s analysis, after deleveraging and cleanup, the market will operate under the following conditions:

• Lighter positions: Investors hold smaller positions, reducing the risk of extreme volatility
• Lower leverage: Overall leverage in the futures market decreases, making the market more stable
• Reduced risk exposure: Over-concentrated short or long positions are dispersed

These conditions favor the market returning to a relatively balanced price rhythm rather than being driven by speculative emotions and experiencing violent fluctuations.

Validation of Current Price Trends

BTC’s recent performance already reflects this change:

From a longer-term perspective, BTC has begun a gentle upward trend after deleveraging, rather than experiencing large swings. This relatively stable upward momentum exemplifies what Matrixport refers to as a “balanced price rhythm.”

Outlook for a New Market Cycle in 2026

Opportunity as Crowded Trading Recedes

Matrixport believes that as crowded trading gradually subsides, the overheated speculative activity cools down significantly, and the price movements of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may align more closely with fundamentals. This means:

• Price volatility will be more driven by fundamentals rather than pure emotion
• Long-term holders will gain more influence, while short-term traders’ impact diminishes
• Market predictability may improve

Risks to Watch

It is worth noting that Matrixport also points out that 2026 will be a “high-risk critical turning year for digital assets.” While the fundamentals are more stable, the market still faces multiple challenges:

• Leadership changes and policy uncertainties at the Federal Reserve
• Macroeconomic pressures from a weakening labor market
• Major industry events like Mt. Gox repayments and the European MiCA regulations
• The critical transition period before Bitcoin halving

These factors could lead to higher volatility in 2026, but the nature of the volatility is expected to be more rational and orderly.

Shift in Market Evaluation Framework

Related information indicates that the crypto market is undergoing a transition from “narrative-driven” to “value-driven” dynamics. This aligns closely with the post-deleveraging market characteristics—after speculative positions are cleared, the market will focus more on the actual revenue-generating ability and sustainable business models of projects, rather than just storytelling.

Summary

The $30 billion deleveraging in derivatives is a necessary adjustment for the market. Although it caused volatility during the process, it has laid a more solid foundation for 2026. The current mild upward trend in BTC prices already reflects market recognition of this change.

2026 may become a pivotal year for the crypto market’s shift from mania to rationality. While risks remain, a market with more stable fundamentals, lower leverage, and cooled speculative sentiment could create better opportunities for long-term investors. The key is for investors to stay rational in a high-risk environment and actively manage their positions rather than being driven by emotions.