From January 27 to 28, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a key monetary policy meeting, with the decision expected to be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on January 29. This meeting is highly anticipated as the global economic situation is in a delicate balance.

Currently, the market generally expects a rate cut signal, with some analysts believing it could release approximately 125 basis points of easing space. The logic behind this is clear: although inflation remains sticky, employment data is beginning to weaken, layoffs are continuing to spread, and consumer confidence is declining. GDP data looks decent, but its supporting strength is questionable.

Powell faces a dilemma. If he keeps the stance unchanged, the market worries it could exacerbate the risk of a hard landing. If he adopts aggressive rate cuts, it could reignite inflation expectations. Internal hawk-dove disagreements are intensifying, severely constraining decision-making space.

From a cryptocurrency perspective, the outcome of this meeting will directly influence the short-term trends of major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Expectations of rate cuts are generally favorable for risk assets, but the actual impact depends on the precision of policy wording. The market is already brewing volatility, with many investors waiting for the dust to settle.