#2026年比特币行情展望 Spot Gold Weekly Review

**Market Overview**

During the Asian trading session, spot gold experienced a strong upward move, with London Gold quotes approaching $4400 per ounce, nearly a $60 daily increase, showing quite a fierce rally.
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**The Logic Behind This Rally**

Two factors are driving this surge in gold. First, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle within the year, which is naturally favorable for gold prices; second, geopolitical uncertainties persist, leading safe-haven funds to continue flowing into the gold market.

However, there are also pressure factors—futures exchanges have raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which often acts as a brake on short-term gains.

**Judgment on the Next Half Month's Pace**

From a mid-term perspective, the expectations of rate cuts and safe-haven demand remain solid support pillars, so the upward potential for gold is not entirely closed. But currently, gold prices are at relatively high levels, and in the short term, a consolidation and correction phase is likely, possibly even a significant pullback.

Operationally, patience is advised—avoid chasing highs. Waiting for gold prices to retreat before entering will be more comfortable. Additionally, silver's volatility will be much more aggressive than gold, requiring separate attention. Focus on three key points: the trend of U.S. real interest rates, the dollar index movement, and the flow of market funds.

**Technical Analysis**

After falling from the high of $4549, gold went through a three-wave correction, with the lowest reaching $4274—this level is exactly the 50% retracement of the rally from $3997 to $4549. A rebound then followed.

The $4274 level from Wednesday can be considered the low point of this decline, but the bottom has not been confirmed yet. For now, this rebound should be viewed as a correction rather than a trend reversal. The main resistance above is around $4472, which is also a key resistance level on the daily chart.

In the short term today, traders can operate with the trend, as the third wave of the rally has already formed. When the price pulls back to this level, it will be a good entry point.

**Specific Trading Strategy**

Around $4350 can be directly bought; if the price retraces to the $4360-$4380 range, consider adding positions to build a larger position. The initial target is set at the $4400-$4450 range; once broken, hold on and let profits run.