#数字资产动态追踪 AAVE Long Opportunity Analysis

From multiple perspectives, AAVE currently has a good upside potential. Here are my trading thoughts.

**Entry Fundamentals**
The current price is around $165.85, having retraced to the 4-hour EMA12 support line (approximately $164.80) for a potential bounce. Considering establishing a long position at this level, with an entry target of $165.00.

**Key Technical Signals**
The 1-hour Bollinger upper band has broken through $167.30 and stabilized—this usually indicates that short-term upward momentum is not weak. Looking at the 4-hour level, RSI reads 68.5, MACD histogram continues to expand to +0.18, showing that momentum is still building. The daily chart is healthier, with RSI at 61.2 and MACD histogram at +2.10, indicating a clear medium- to long-term uptrend. Overall, there are no signs of bearish divergence or other reversal signals.

**On-Chain Data Perspective**
Open interest is about $81.2B, down 0.07% in 24 hours, essentially flat. Interestingly, short liquidations account for 78% (about $5.2M), indicating selling pressure is being suppressed. Regarding funding rates, mainstream platforms are neutral to slightly negative, suggesting leverage betting pressure is not high.

The liquidation heatmap shows a cluster of $250M long open interest in the $160-165 range, forming a solid support zone. Conversely, the $170-180 range has $210M short open interest; if the price breaks through this zone, it could trigger a chain of liquidations, pushing the price higher.

**Ecological Activity to Watch**
Aave, as a leading lending protocol, has a TVL of $8.74B, maintaining a leading position among similar products. 24-hour on-chain fees are $542K, DEX trading volume is $43.5B, indicating active capital movement within the ecosystem. Daily active users are about 2.1 million, a notable figure in the DeFi space.

Upcoming AIP-800 upgrade will expand to zkSync Era and increase GHO supply by 4%, which should enhance the protocol’s revenue capacity. Additionally, the 61.2k AAVE unlock scheduled for January 7, 2026 (about $8.3M), is relatively small; historically, such unlocks are usually absorbed by the market.

On social sentiment, Twitter positive sentiment is about 72%. Data from on-chain aggregation platforms shows that smart money has net inflows of about $12M in the past 48 hours, with signs of continued accumulation by large holders.

**My Trading Framework**
- Entry: $165.00 (current retracement support)
- Leverage recommendation: 5x (used with mainstream contract platforms)
- Stop-loss: $160.00 (near the daily SMA50, a break below indicates a breakdown of bullish structure, about -3% of principal, or -15% with leverage)
- Take profit: $180.00 (slightly above the 4-hour Bollinger upper band at $179.5, about +9% of principal, or +45% with leverage)
- Position duration: 48-72 hours
- Position management: maximum 20% of account value, close or halve immediately if stop-loss is hit
- After reaching the target price, take 60% profit and hold the remaining 40% to observe further movement

**Risk Warning**
On a macro level, if Bitcoin drops below $92k, the overall market risk appetite may decline, and AAVE could face a retracement. In such cases, quick stop-loss is essential—do not hold onto unrealistic hopes.

Overall, AAVE’s technical, on-chain, and fundamental signals are aligned with a bullish outlook. Of course, the crypto market is full of uncertainties, and risk management always comes first. $AAVE