#比特币市场分析 Seeing Arthur Hayes's comments on the yen depreciation and Bitcoin, I want to share some cold thoughts with everyone.

Large-scale predictions certainly tend to attract attention, but the key is to understand the underlying logic rather than be fooled by the numbers themselves. The long-term negative real interest rate policy of the yen could indeed push up alternative assets represented by Bitcoin, and this analytical framework is valid. However, moving from "yen drops to 200" to "Bitcoin rises to a million" involves too many variables—policy adjustments, geopolitical situations, liquidity conditions……

My suggestion is to treat such viewpoints as a reference coordinate rather than a definitive investment signal. More importantly, examine your own portfolio allocation: Is your exposure to crypto assets within an acceptable risk range? Will long-term positioning and short-term volatility impact your mindset?

The market is always filled with master-level voices and grand narratives, but the most prudent investments often come from a clear understanding of one's risk tolerance and the patience to stick to established allocations. Avoid chasing highs or blindly bearish; in an era of limited certainty, this restraint itself is a form of winning probability.