Bitcoin recovers to $91,000... New Year rally amid geopolitical tensions

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: [Coin Market] Bitcoin recovers to $91,000… Breaking through ‘Madero arrest’ turmoil for a New Year rally Original Link: https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/archives/1028132 The digital asset market has shown a rebound trend since the new year. Bitcoin has risen above $91,000 for the first time since December 13 last year, continuing its upward momentum. This increase is believed to be due to the easing of supply and demand pressures as a large number of positions accumulated in the futures market have been liquidated recently.

Although geopolitical tensions have heightened, the risk asset appetite is reviving in the digital asset market.

Real-time Market Status

As of 8:30 a.m. on the 5th, on the domestic digital asset exchange Upbit, Bitcoin(BTC) was traded at 132.13 million won, up 0.84% from 9 a.m. the previous day. On global exchanges, it recorded a 0.74% increase to $91,340. At the same time, Ethereum was up 0.4% at $3,142, and XRP(XRP) was traded at $2.09, up 3.48%.

Futures Position Liquidation Drives Price Increase

This upward trend appeared immediately after a large-scale liquidation of overly skewed futures positions. According to CoinGlass, approximately $60.66 million worth of positions were liquidated in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. Of these, about 91.33% were short(sell) positions. Overall, about $196.33 million worth of liquidations occurred across the digital asset market. The liquidation of positions betting on a decline played a key role in triggering the price rise.

Impact of Geopolitical Variables

Political factors also influenced market sentiment. The U.S. president mentioned the possibility of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, indicating policy intent. However, there was no clear explanation of the specific intervention methods or scope.

Within Venezuela, the power structure changed rapidly. The Venezuelan Supreme Court delegated presidential authority to Vice President Delsi Rodriguez, and it is reported that the current president has been secured.

Crude Oil Prices and Inflation Outlook

The market is paying particular attention to crude oil price movements. This is because the outlook for Venezuela’s oil supply, a member of OPEC(OPEC), has become uncertain. Although Venezuela is only among the top 20 oil-producing countries globally, prolonged oil price increases could stimulate inflationary pressures in various countries, posing a concern for the market.

However, some analysts suggest that if oil prices stabilize or decline depending on the development of the situation, inflationary pressures could ease, raising expectations for interest rate cuts. In fact, the supply disruptions are believed to be limited, with reports indicating that major oil infrastructure is operating normally.

Expert Assessment

Experts believe that while caution is needed regarding short-term risk aversion, the likelihood of the situation prolonging is low. One expert stated, “While it may trigger risk aversion in the short term, the chances of leading to a sustained oil shock are low, so it will likely be a temporary psychological setback.”

Market Sentiment Indicator

The fear and greed(Fear·Greed) index, which reflects investor sentiment in the digital asset market, slightly declined to 25 points from 29 points the previous day. The index indicates that closer to 0 signifies strong selling pressure, while closer to 100 indicates strong buying sentiment.