Maduro is taken to a New York detention center! Economist: How will the investment market react?

On the 3rd, Trump announced the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, describing it as an “absolute decisive action” involving 15,000 soldiers, one aircraft carrier, and dozens of F-35s. Maduro was taken to a detention center in New York and faces drug trafficking and terrorism charges. Institutional sources say that oil prices and energy stocks will experience a major shock, and the OPEC+ meeting could amplify volatility. Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Trump’s announcement to take over the country and rebuild its oil industry has market bets on oil and gas reconstruction opportunities.

OPEC+ Meeting as a Key Variable in Oil Prices

OPEC+ (including Venezuela and Russia) held a meeting over the weekend to discuss production policies. Market participants generally believe this meeting will be a significant trigger for short-term oil price fluctuations. Jamie Cox, Managing Partner at Harris Financial Group, stated that the overall market response might be relatively limited, but the catalyst that could truly trigger market volatility is likely to appear at the OPEC+ meeting.

The timing of Maduro’s arrest is extremely sensitive. Although Venezuela’s oil production has drastically shrunk under Maduro’s rule, it still holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels. Trump’s announcement to take control of Venezuela and rebuild its oil industry could exert pressure on OPEC+’s production cut agreements, given the potential increase in supply expectations.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets’ Global Commodities Strategist, believes that based on the reality of decades-long decline in Venezuela’s oil industry, this will be an enormous undertaking. She also notes that the US’s track record of regime change and national reconstruction has not always been clearly successful. This uncertainty could lead to intense discussions at the OPEC+ meeting, with member countries reassessing their production policies.

Adding complexity, Trump also threatened that if Iranian security forces open fire on protesters, the US will intervene. Recent unrest in Iran has resulted in multiple deaths and is seen as one of the biggest internal challenges to Iranian authorities in years. With both Venezuela and Iran, two major OPEC members, facing crises simultaneously, the upcoming Sunday meeting is further complicated by these variables.

Wall Street Divergence: Gold Rush vs. Oversupply

Market opinions on oil prices following Maduro’s arrest are sharply divided. Cox believes that the market might preemptively bet on the potential benefits of Venezuela’s oil and gas reconstruction, with large oil companies and drilling-related stocks likely to attract capital. This “gold rush” optimism could trigger a collective rise in energy stocks at Monday’s opening.

Diverging Views Among Investment Institutions

Optimists: Rebuilding Opportunities

· Major oil companies and drilling equipment providers will benefit from Venezuela’s oilfield reconstruction

· The Trump administration may open the US market to Venezuelan enterprises

· Post-regime change asset privatization offers investment opportunities

Cautious: Oversupply Concerns

· Venezuela’s oil reserves release will exacerbate current market expectations of oversupply

· Reconstruction projects will take years or even decades, with limited short-term effects

· US history in the Southern Hemisphere has been unstable

Neutral: Event-Driven Volatility

· Markets tend to hedge during conflict anticipation phases, with risk appetite returning after conflict erupts

· Events unfold rapidly, likely eliciting a clear response only from the crude oil market

· Geopolitical tensions remain the core variable driving market volatility

However, Annexus Wealth Management Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen holds a different view. He points out that because the event occurred very quickly, only the oil market might show a clear reaction. Given the existing oversupply expectations, the added supply imagination could actually reinforce the medium-term view of a loose oil market.

Jacobsen also notes an interesting phenomenon: during conflict anticipation, markets often shift to risk-off, but once conflict actually erupts, capital tends to quickly shift back to risk-on. This emotional switch could cause intense volatility at Monday’s opening.

CIA Informant and $50 Million Reward

Behind this globally shocking arrest operation is a CIA informant embedded within Maduro’s inner circle. According to CNN and Reuters, the operation was in planning since mid-December 2024, but the actual plan was conceived earlier. In August 2025, the CIA secretly dispatched a team into Venezuela to track Maduro’s daily movements.

This team’s intelligence was astonishingly precise. They knew Maduro’s safe house location, travel routes, even his dietary habits, clothing, and pets. To ensure success, the CIA created an exact replica of Maduro’s safe house for Delta Force and other elite US troops to rehearse repeatedly.

But the most critical element of the operation was not the 15,000 soldiers or the F-35 fighters, but the CIA informant embedded within the Venezuelan government. From days before Maduro’s capture to the very last moment before the operation, the informant provided precise updates on Maduro’s exact location. The reward for this informant was $50 million (approximately NT$1.6 billion).

Geopolitical Risks Spread and Long-term Impact

Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight and geopolitical strategist, warns that transitions after authoritarian regimes are often very complex and nonlinear. The US’s history in the Southern Hemisphere is also unstable. She predicts that Monday’s opening could stimulate market risk sentiment but also heighten concerns about changes in Iran’s situation.

Marchel Alexandrovich, economist at Saltmarsh Economics, points out that this event again reminds us that geopolitical tensions remain a core driver of market volatility. From US tariff disputes, Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, to now Venezuela, headline risks faced by markets are significantly higher than before and continue to influence asset pricing.

Fordham also notes that if Venezuela and Iran undergo structural changes in the future, their long-term status as energy producers and markets closed to international investors could change. Such potential openings would reshape market expectations. For the US, a $50 million deal could diminish China’s influence in South America—an extremely lucrative deal.