The strong performance of Bitcoin in previous bull markets is often closely linked to a loose monetary environment. The data speaks for itself: when the global M2 money supply increases, Bitcoin usually follows suit within the next 10-week cycle—this pattern has been validated across multiple market cycles in the past.

From another perspective, the current expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are gradually materializing, injecting abundant liquidity into the market. Based on this historical correlation, and considering that M2 leads Bitcoin by approximately 10 weeks, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $180,000 mark during this rate cut cycle.

Of course, this logic assumes a continued macroeconomic liquidity easing. Historical data shows that turning points in M2 often signal a shift in the direction of crypto assets. It is worth noting that the scale and timing of this liquidity release—will directly impact whether BTC can rise as expected and how much it can increase.

In simple terms, paying attention to the trend of M2 changes may be more effective than watching candlestick charts to grasp the pulse of this Bitcoin rally.