#稳定币 Seeing the trading volume of stablecoins in the Brazilian market surge by 3 times, I become even more cautious. Emerging market investors are on average investing over a thousand USD, which sounds like an opportunity, but a closer look at the data reveals a different story.

Macroeconomic uncertainty has everyone fleeing volatility, and stablecoins have become a safe haven. The logic itself isn't wrong, but the problem is—when stablecoin trading volume surges, it's often also when new retail investors flood in. They use stablecoins to chase hot projects, and what happens then? Stablecoins absorb their principal, but can't contain their greed.

I've seen too many stories like this. Project teams package low-risk narratives, combined with the "safety" of stablecoins, designing various financial products and liquidity mining schemes. On the surface, low risk; in reality, all the risk explodes at the moment of system collapse. The $325 million digital fixed income product distributed by Mercado Bitcoin sounds stable, but who can guarantee that the promisees will survive the next bear market?

The 56% growth in investors under 24 makes me even more nervous. Young people are energetic but lack experience, making them most susceptible to being fooled by claims like "I'm very safe in stablecoins." They haven't yet experienced a real liquidation.

Key defensive points are these: stablecoins can indeed reduce volatility, but that doesn't mean there's no risk. High-yield products, lending, mining—adding stablecoins doesn't change the fundamental fact—counterparty risk is always present. Allocation is fine, but never put all your chips on one platform or one product. Longevity on-chain depends on leaving room to maneuver.