Recent remarks by former Merrill Lynch Chief North American Economist Rosenberg have caused a stir in the financial circle. This analyst, known as the "Wall Street Prophet," directly stated that the biggest uncertainty facing the US economy this year is that everyone will suddenly realize — the labor market is not cooling down gradually, but is accelerating towards collapse.

The data is in front of us. The US unemployment rate has risen from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% in November. Rosenberg's forecast is even more pessimistic: the unemployment rate will soon break 5%, and it could test the 6% mark by the end of the year. It sounds a bit frightening, but his logic is actually sound.

Although the US government’s long-term shutdown has caused some gaps in official economic data, the labor reports already released are flashing red lights. Recent data shows that the US layoff rate in October last year rose to 1.2%, the highest point in the past year. It doesn’t sound too outrageous, but the problem is — the trend has already shifted. Rosenberg pointed out that layoffs are gradually increasing at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, on the hiring front, the situation is even more painful — in his words, "plummeting like a hot knife through butter."

On one side, unemployment is accelerating; on the other, hiring is shrinking, creating enormous economic pressure. If this situation continues to worsen, the Federal Reserve will be forced to take aggressive rate-cutting measures to stabilize the situation. In other words, the Fed’s rate-cut cycle might be more intense than market expectations. For the crypto market, this policy shift usually means increased liquidity, with funds seeking new investment outlets — which could become a key catalyst for pushing up digital assets.