The Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 3 a.m. caused a huge stir in the crypto circle. Global traders stayed up overnight in front of their screens, with Bitcoin repeatedly testing around $90,000, while the Fear & Greed Index dropped to an extreme level of 25. This time, even veteran members in the group had no clear idea—hold the coins or liquidate, opinions varied widely.

On December 11, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, bringing the rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range. On the surface, this seemed like a friendly signal, but the crypto market reacted very differently. Bitcoin briefly surged then sharply plummeted, now oscillating between $88,000 and $92,000. This is the reality: buy on expectations, sell on facts. After a cycle like this, retail investors chasing the high get trapped.

What’s more painful is that among the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve, the biggest split in six years emerged—3 votes against, 2 votes to hold steady, and 1 even called for a 50 basis point cut. While the surface shows a modest 25 basis point cut, the dot plot hints at the possibility of another cut by 2026. This contradictory "hawkish rate cut" combination directly exposes the market’s wishful thinking.

Retail investors often make the mistake of treating a single rate cut as a lifeline. In reality, the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies ultimately depends on the overall liquidity environment. Currently, the Fed’s policy direction is ambiguous, and betting on a one-sided move is akin to walking blindfolded across the street.

Operationally, it’s wise to see it this way: reduce leverage in the short term, closely monitor the key zone of $86,500-$89,500, cut losses if broken, and avoid chasing rebounds. For the long term, stay on the sidelines, wait for clear policy signals before increasing positions. Most importantly, don’t get caught up in the hype of news. The Fed’s internal consensus has not been reached, and the probability of betting correctly is very low. Managing risk and waiting for signals is the current proper rhythm.