#预测市场 Seeing the changes in the prediction market regarding the Fed Chair candidate, I am reminded of an important point: market sentiment fluctuations are as frequent as stock price movements, but they should not be the reason for us to adjust our asset allocation.

Wosh's probability surged from 7% to 48%, while Hasset dropped from 85% to 42%. Such dramatic fluctuations can indeed trigger anxiety. But upon closer reflection, the change of the Fed Chair ultimately affects the medium- to long-term monetary policy direction, not tomorrow's market行情. What we truly need to do is not to frequently rebalance our portfolio following every震荡 in the prediction market, but to understand the logic behind policy changes and then坚定 our long-term布局.

Over the years, I have seen too many investors disrupt their plans due to short-term uncertainties. Important news is indeed worth关注, but the key is to stay rational—manage positions reasonably to respond to policy changes, rather than being led by the probability game of the prediction market. Policies may change, markets will adjust, but a clear asset allocation framework and sufficient risk buffers are what truly enable us to remain calm amid uncertainty.