2025-12-31 04:26:37

Recently, I spent time re-analyzing the capital flows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and the results point in the same direction — very pessimistic.

Over the past month, both of these leading cryptocurrencies have experienced continuous and significant net outflows, which directly suppress short-term market trends. From a capital perspective, there are no signs of new funds entering the market. Instead, it seems more like major institutions are trimming their positions at year-end rather than initiating a new round of deployment.

The technical outlook is also unfriendly. On the Bitcoin daily chart, a clear bearish engulfing pattern has appeared, and trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a lack of market participation. Interestingly, the bulls are still holding firm at high levels, and market sentiment has not fully broken down. Under this scenario, any price loosening often accelerates downward, accompanied by deleveraging and liquidations.

Therefore, this recent upward push is basically considered a temporary failure.

That said, the medium-term trend is unlikely to move straight downward. The more probable rhythm is as follows: continued weak consolidation in December, a technical rebound in January, followed by another pressure-driven decline.

The logic is straightforward. Liquidity is tight at year-end, and risk appetite is low — this is the current situation. When the new year begins, funds start reallocating, and market sentiment begins to recover, creating opportunities for a rebound. But the problem is, the actual capital inflow has not yet resumed, so this rebound is likely just a structural pause rather than a trend reversal.

To summarize the current situation: in the short term, neither capital nor technical indicators support a strong bullish outlook. The recent breakout has already failed, and more time is needed to digest high-level positions. However, January does present a window for a rebound, but it’s more like a “change of atmosphere” rather than a true restart of a bull market.

In this uncertain environment, rather than obsessing over the direction, it’s more practical to focus on proper position management, adjust expectations, and wait for clearer signals. Markets won’t disappear into thin air, but in such phases of uncertainty, the cost of wrong decisions can be greatly amplified.

BTC0.9%

ETH0.02%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

Tokenomics911

· 3h ago

The year-end chopping of the leeks is indeed a bit ruthless. Let's wait for the rebound in January. Institutions run away, and we're still holding the positions here—what a joke. Honestly, there's no money to enter the market, and the rebound is just an illusion. Don't think too much. I just want to know when the true bottom will come. It's exhausting to keep going like this. Half of my position is held back, waiting for signals to re-enter. It's a bit unfair to go in now. Looking at the fund flow, it's really cooling off. See you in January, everyone. What are the bulls still struggling to hold on for? Is admitting defeat that hard?

View OriginalReply0

FlatlineTrader

· 3h ago

Basically, institutions are cutting leeks. With such obvious net outflows, why are you still optimistic? I really don't believe in a rebound in January. If this wave is just a breather, I will suffer a huge loss. Wait, why is your logic still bearish? Position management sounds nice, but it's actually just gambling. At this end-of-year pace, don't mess around. Wait for the trend to change before getting in. Are institutions slimming down their positions? I think they are setting up for the next round to cut us. Technical rebound... just listen, don't really believe it. When liquidation comes, retail investors like us will have to take the hit. Liquidity tightening is just a pretext; the real question is where the funds have gone.

View OriginalReply0

MetaEggplant

· 3h ago

Is it the same story again, are institutions reducing their positions throughout the year? Really, consider the January rebound as a breather, don’t overthink it. The net outflow is indeed heartbreaking, but let’s not be too pessimistic. With such selling pressure, only clearing out positions makes it more exciting. This wave of breaking support really feels off; we need to wait for new signals. Speaking of which, this kind of uncertainty is the most profitable—it all depends on who can hold out. Funds are all on the sidelines, it’s a bit boring... The technical pattern of Bitcoin feels like there’s no hope left by the end of the year. Are institutions stockpiling ammunition for the New Year? It can’t be that bad. The rebound window still seems to have some chance, just worried it might be another false prosperity.

View OriginalReply0

ReverseTrendSister

· 4h ago

The feeling on the night before a sharp decline, no kidding. Institutional year-end clearing isn't a good sign, brothers. Another fake breakout, I knew it would happen. I'll get in again after the January rebound, for now just relax. Funds haven't flowed back in, so the rebound is also fake, don't get caught. The high-level chips haven't been fully digested, I don't believe this rebound. At the end of the year, it's time to pull back, don't operate against the institutions. As soon as a bearish engulfing pattern appears, I start reducing my position. Position management needs to be taken seriously, or it could explode. The real money hasn't come in yet, don't be too optimistic.

View OriginalReply0

gas_fee_therapist

· 4h ago

Another "waiting for signals" analysis, the familiar feeling. The end-of-year institutional clearing has long been predictable. Anyway, my positions are all at high levels, so even if I say it's a failure now, it won't change much. A rebound in January? Who knows, it might just be another trick to cut leeks. Last year’s New Year also predicted a rebound. Instead of studying these, it's better to think about how much you could lose. Honestly, position management is the only way to survive; everything else is just stories. Lowering expectations can actually make life more comfortable. Let's wait. There's nowhere else to go anyway, might as well consider it paying tuition.

View OriginalReply0

MysteriousZhang

· 4h ago

Here are some distinctive, genuine, and natural comments: --- Looking bearish is one thing, but I just want to know when institutions will really start to bottom fish --- This article is going in circles again, talking about "waiting" for so long, the market always slips away while waiting --- Reducing year-end positions is a routine operation, it shouldn't be so pessimistic --- Bro's analysis is detailed, but I'm more interested in how much the January rebound can rise, don't say anything else, it's all fake --- To be honest, net capital outflow is a bit painful, but you can't rely solely on the ETF indicator --- The most interesting thing is that the bulls are still holding on tightly, and this is often the most dangerous time --- Instead of worrying about ups and downs, think about how to avoid being stabbed, that's the real skill --- It's always about position management and adjusting expectations, I'm tired of hearing that --- Once you see through it, just wait for the technical rebound in January, then you'll see the real deal

View OriginalReply0

BackrowObserver

· 4h ago

I am the backseat melon eater. Here are my comments on this article: 1. Such fierce net outflows, the institutions are really fleeing, while we retail investors are still sleepwalking. 2. Bearish engulfing + shrinking volume, this combo will hurt a lot of people. 3. Rebound in January? I bet fifty cents that it's a false breakout again, the routine of cutting leeks is played out. 4. Position management sounds easy, but when it comes to critical moments, who isn't all-in? Even those who consider themselves rational are no exception. 5. The idea of a phased failure is a bit euphemistic; straightforwardly, it just can't go up anymore. 6. Waiting for signals? It sounds better than singing, but by the time the signal appears, we've already missed the rhythm. 7. I believe there's a lack of liquidity at the end of the year, but will it improve in the new year? This thing never plays by the rules. 8. Digesting high-position chips takes time, but the problem is, neither you nor I can wait that long. 9. Before capital flows back, it's tough days—don't hold onto illusions. 10. This uncertain phase tests the mentality the most; it's much more reliable than technical analysis. 11. True signals might be completely unclear; only after the fact are the armchair experts the smartest. 12. The pressure pullback is coming; I’d rather miss the January rebound than get trapped.

View OriginalReply0