2025-12-31 04:26:14

The year is coming to an end in the blink of an eye. First, I wish everyone a Happy New Year in advance: 2026, may everyone achieve success swiftly.

Let's talk about Bitcoin's performance this year. From mid-April to mid-October, it surged over 50,000 points in six months, then retraced more than 40,000 points in just a month and a half, with a decline approaching 90%. Looking back at history, such extreme market conditions are rare, except for the wave in 2021 to 2022. Some say it's an opportunity; others say dreams are shattered. But since the past is gone, instead of dwelling on it, it's better to look forward.

Now, let's discuss the recent daily chart trend. Bitcoin has been oscillating within a large range over the past month, with trading volume appearing tepid. This sluggish pace indicates a lack of momentum. From a technical perspective, it is still attempting to regain an upward trend, but honestly, the chances of a breakout are not high. The Bollinger Bands logic I mentioned before shows that 95% of the market time is spent oscillating inside the bands. When it touches the outer band, it indicates an extreme condition. This wave has already touched the outer band once, even reaching the 99% percentile. According to probability theory, the chance of hitting it again is very small; even if it does, the potential move is only about 1,800 to 1,900 points.

The key point here is: if it can surge to around $90,000 in the near future, that would be a very good shorting opportunity for me personally. Based on indicator structure and theoretical fundamentals, this level is bound to experience a downward break, and only after breaking can there be a chance for a rebound.

Of course, the market is unpredictable, and whether it will follow this rhythm depends on future data validation. That's all for today's analysis. If you have any questions, feel free to discuss.

BTC0.98%

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DeFiDoctor

· 5h ago

The Bollinger Bands 99th percentile wave... looks painful to watch. Such extreme market conditions are really rare. With volume so lukewarm and still trying to break through, the diagnosis is a typical symptom of lack of momentum. I suggest observing. I agree with the logic of shorting at the $90,000 level. The indicator structure indeed points to a downward break, and only a break can establish a new trend. Repeated tug-of-war within the consolidation range—I'm curious to see how later data will validate this theory. The aftereffects of the 2021-2022 wave are still affecting market sentiment today.

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SchroedingersFrontrun

· 5h ago

$90,000 shorting, this move is a bit intense --- Another year, the gains and losses from before are in the past, it is what it is --- The Bollinger Bands theory sounds impressive, but the probability of hitting the 99% quantile again is low. I get this logic --- Been nagging for a month, the trading volume indeed isn't meaningful, let's wait and see --- The last wave from 21 to 22 was crazy. Although this time is fierce, it’s not as extreme --- Jumping to 90,000 to short takes guts. I think most probably won't even have that chance --- Instead of dwelling on what’s already gone, it’s better to think about how to operate next. I agree with this idea --- The probability of a breakout with insufficient volume is indeed small. Let’s just see what the data says --- Finished my worship early, if by 2026 I can achieve success, I’ll be satisfied. Not thinking too much for now --- The trading volume is so lukewarm, it feels like the market hasn't decided what to do next

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 5h ago

Both falling and rising, people are numb Short at 90,000 points? That's a bold move With such sluggish volume, what's the point of a breakout? The 21 to 22 year wave was truly despairing, but this time it's okay Breaking the Bollinger Bands' outer band again? Haha, probability theory tells you it's impossible Hesitating for half a month, feels like a big move is coming I'm really not brave enough to short at 90,000, the risk is too high, brother Will history repeat itself? Who can say for sure Only a breakdown offers a chance? Hearing you say that, it kind of makes sense

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 5h ago

$90,000 is indeed a good shorting point. The previous retracement of over $40,000 was really stimulating, and now this sluggish pace makes people a bit restless. The Bollinger Bands 99% quantile has been touched, and the probability of a repeat is indeed low; this logic is sound. Insufficient volume just means it's gathering strength; it feels like we need to wait a bit longer. Breaking through is the only chance to stand firm; this makes sense, we need to be patient and watch. What has this tug-of-war over the past month been about? I really can't figure it out. Whether it's opportunity or shattered dreams, looking back now, it all seems meaningless. I'm watching the $90,000 level closely; if it really surges past, I want to join in.

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rug_connoisseur

· 5h ago

90k is my sniping point, waiting for it Only a breakdown can lead to rebirth, this logic is solid Another boring market, really damn dull With such weak volume, breaking upwards? Think again Have you seen a 90% decline? Stay calm That move outside the Bollinger Bands was truly extreme, unlikely to happen again A space of 1,800 points, whatever This wave might just be repeatedly testing the bottom, so annoying I already have a clear idea of the shorting entry points

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WhaleWatcher

· 5h ago

Wait a minute, the 2021 to 2022 wave was truly extreme. The nearly ninety percent drop this time is really unbelievable. Still hesitating? Days with low trading volume are the most annoying. Shorting at $90,000? Is this guy trying to make money crazy? Breaking through is the only chance to stand firm. I agree with that. What does the moderate trading volume indicate? What are the big players thinking? Market fluctuations are unpredictable, everyone knows that. The Bollinger Bands 99% percentile has been touched. So where can it go this time? Claiming success easily sounds nice, but the crypto world is never that simple. A margin of 1,800 points sounds quite solid. It feels like the whole market is waiting for a signal.

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