The last day of 2025, let's talk about the upcoming market trend.

The past few weeks have been a reminder for everyone to position themselves at low levels. Now is the stage to test patience. Yesterday, a major exchange's ETF saw a single-day inflow of $200 million. After the year-end tax payments are completed and the Christmas holiday ends, employees at major institutions will return to their desks to continue working—this time point is often their window for concentrated bottom-fishing. As usual, in January, BTC is likely to break above $100,000, and then another wave of people will follow suit, shouting "The bull is here."

However, January also hides a hidden risk. Due to internal conflicts, the US government is very likely to shut down again, and this uncertainty could become a black swan.

Looking at on-chain data, the outflow speed of stablecoins is beginning to slow down, which is a signal. Meanwhile, BTC is also quietly flowing out, with thousands of units moving.

From several perspectives, the current situation:

**First, why is the price not falling?** A major exchange's ETF has been continuously flowing out for 10 days, with a total escape of over $800 million. A compliant platform has been trading at a negative premium for more than 14 days. Normally, BTC should have dropped more than 10%. But in the past two weeks, the market has stabilized and hasn't continued to decline. There must be mysterious capital absorbing positions behind this; physical laws tell us—if it can't fall, it will rise.

**Second, panic sentiment has already peaked.** Recently, activity in groups has sharply declined, and many people have chosen to exit the scene. Some are shouting that there is no hope, and some even see BTC dropping to $20,000. The market has been thoroughly shaken by manipulative whales, feeling like it could drop another 30%—a sense of despair. But this sophisticated shakeout is precisely the most typical feature of a bottom.

**Third, time and space are already in place.** This round of BTC correction has lasted over half a year. From the big crash on October 11th to now, nearly two months have passed, and the time dimension is basically in place. In terms of space, from the historical high, the maximum decline was 40%, and currently, the retracement is 30%. Many altcoins have fallen even 90%, so the space dimension is also nearly exhausted.

In one sentence: be patient and hold on, waiting for a breakout.