2025-12-31 04:24:39

I recently came across a very interesting set of statistics. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has had a bull market with a probability of over 80%. More importantly, each bull market lasts an average of 5.6 years, with an increase of 108%. And what about bear markets? They last only about 1.4 years on average. What does this data tell us? In the long run, the upward force is much stronger than the downward.

Turning back to the domestic market, the CSI 300 has gained 18% this year, which looks pretty good. But looking ahead, it gets a bit awkward—annualized 6.3% over the past 3 years, negative -2.25% over the past 5 years, and only 2.23% over the past 10 years. Plus, with the current dividend yield at 2.79%, this return rate is indeed far from the historical normal.

The question is: when can our index return to the mean level like the US stock market? The key actually depends on whether the domestic economy can truly stabilize and recover. This is not empty talk; it directly determines whether the index will recover upward or continue to decline.

And for the economy to stabilize and recover, a few words are unavoidable—real estate stability, genuine boost in domestic demand, and breaking the vicious cycle of various "卷" (intense competition). If these actions can be implemented, the index return rate is expected to return to a reasonable range.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ChainProspector

· 8h ago

The US stock bull-bear ratio of 8:1 sounds great, but over the past ten years, the CSI 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen has only had an annualized return of 2.23%... Honestly, it's a bit hopeless. Real estate is unstable, the competition is still ongoing, and domestic demand hasn't picked up either. How can the index possibly rise? The logic is sound. Instead of waiting for the economy to stabilize, it's better to allocate some funds to Hong Kong stocks at a low point or directly invest in the Nasdaq through dollar-cost averaging. Anyway, the A-shares are in such a bear market that there's no end in sight. 18% annually sounds good, but the ten-year average is only 2.23%... The gap is truly astonishing. When will it be reversed? Honestly, if the economy isn't doing well, the index is just the ceiling. No amount of chicken soup will help; you can't rely on it.

View OriginalReply0

DataBartender

· 8h ago

The US stock market's winning rate is truly outstanding, but looking at the A-shares performance over the past few years... I really can't hold on anymore. The CSI 300 has only increased by 2.23% in the past ten years. Is that even considered a rise? Might as well just leave it in the bank. We still have to wait for the economy to genuinely improve, otherwise these indices will just stay stagnant and test people's patience.

View OriginalReply0

BtcDailyResearcher

· 8h ago

U.S. stocks are rising 80% of the time, but we've had negative returns in recent years... I really can't understand when we'll turn things around. The real estate sector isn't moving, domestic demand can't pick up, and no matter how much the index fluctuates, it's all in vain. Even if the economy stabilizes again, so what? It depends on whether it's a genuine stabilization or just on paper. When comparing these yields side by side, it really affects the mindset a bit.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropCollector

· 8h ago

The fact that the US stock market has an 80% bullish frequency is indeed absolute, but it's a bit futile to compare it to the A-shares... The performance over the past few years in China is right there, and talking about stabilization would only be theoretical on paper.

View OriginalReply0

GmGmNoGn

· 8h ago

The data on US stocks is quite impressive, but over here... just look at this -2.25% over ten years, it's really unbreakable.

View OriginalReply0

BTCBeliefStation

· 8h ago

U.S. stocks are rising 80% of the time, while our A-shares are only 2.23% over 10 years... The gap is really huge. The real estate market isn't stable, and the vicious cycle hasn't been broken. How can the index go up? Honestly, it's still because the economy hasn't truly picked up. The CSI 300 is up 18% this year, which looks good, but over the past decade, it becomes a bit awkward. Everyone knows what's going on with the large-cap stocks' weightings. Wait, isn't this logic reversed... Can the bull and bear cycles of U.S. stocks be replicated in A-shares? The institutional environment is completely different. That's right, but the key still depends on how policies are implemented. Just shouting slogans isn't enough, brother.

View OriginalReply0