#美联储利率政策 The Fed's recent actions are indeed worth paying attention to. The 25 basis point rate cut aligns with expectations, but the key factor is the Treasury reserve management purchase plan—initial scale of $40 billion, continuing until April 2026. This essentially marks a shift from balance sheet reduction to net injection, commonly referred to by the market as "hidden QE."

Combined with the latest capital flow data, the market is indeed responding. Digital assets saw a net inflow of $864 million last week, maintaining a mild inflow for three consecutive weeks, which is no coincidence. Bitcoin absorbed $522 million in a single week, while short products saw outflows for the second consecutive week, indicating a recovery in sentiment. The US market was the most active, with $796 million inflow dominating.

However, it is worth taking a calm view that Bitcoin's performance this year has indeed lagged—total inflows of $27.7 billion compared to $41 billion in the same period in 2024, a significant decline. Ethereum, on the other hand, performed better, with a 148% year-over-year growth rate making it more attractive. Solana, with a total of only $3.5 billion, has seen tenfold year-over-year growth, but the risks involved cannot be ignored.

The policy environment is indeed more moderate than expected, but this also means the market may have already partially priced in these expectations. The next focus should be on the sustainability of capital flows—particularly whether institutional investment products can maintain stable inflows, which will determine the strength of the bottom support.