December 31, 2025 BTC Contract Key Technical Levels

Today closes the monthly chart; trade cautiously and set stop-loss levels properly!!!
The current market is below a critical multi-cycle resonance pressure level, facing a directional choice. Abandon all predictions, focus on the game between “key resistance level breakout” and “key support level retest,” pursuing reasonable returns with minimal risk.
Bull-Bear Threshold: 87,717.9 USDT (4-hour MA21 support and recent platform lows; as long as the price remains above this level, the short-term bullish structure can be maintained).

Upper Resistance Levels (Breakout for Long/Trend Reversal Confirmation Zone):
P3: 94,554.9 (daily previous high, strong resistance)
P2: 92,000.0 (key psychological integer level)
P1: 90,450.7 (core resistance level, upper boundary of the range; breaking this opens upward space)

Lower Support Levels (Retest for Long/Long Stop-Loss Zone):
S1: 87,717.9 (threshold, trend long position lifeline)
S2: 87,000.0 (psychological level and previous high-volume trading zone)
S3: 86,244.8 (lower boundary of the previous range; if broken, it could return to wide-range oscillation or even turn bearish, with two points below oscillation: 85,200/84,400; breaking below 84,000 worsens the market significantly, deepening the bearish trend and opening downward space)

Note: These levels are the general boundaries of the range; orders can be placed with a fluctuation of 100~150 points around these levels.

Core Trading Logic:
• From a long-term perspective, the price remains below the 100,000 level, with the overall structure still dominated by a bear trend. However, the price is currently above the long-term upward trendline, which can be seen as the final bottoming and rebound attempt phase of the long-term downtrend.
• From a medium-term perspective, the price has clearly broken above MA5 and MA13, and has broken through a recent short-term downtrend line. The structure suggests that the downtrend “may” be ending, shifting to a sideways bullish bias. However, the price is approaching the previous high of 90,450.7, facing a strong resistance test.
• From a short-term perspective, the current price oscillates within the wide range of 86,244.8 - 90,450.7, and is now testing the upper boundary resistance. The 4-hour moving average (MA21: 87,999.0) has turned support. The structure is building momentum before breaking out; 90,450.7 is the key threshold determining bullish or bearish fate—this is critical!

Probability Trading Discipline:
Execute no more than 3 preset trades per day (e.g., 2 range trades + 1 breakout trade), then immediately stop all trading.
If daily cumulative loss reaches 10% of capital, forcibly shut down and rest.
For take-profit and stop-loss distances, beginners can set at 1:1 (generally around 700 points up/down), experienced traders should manually execute and reduce positions by 50%-75% before moving to breakeven to hold the position.

Probability Trading Conclusion:
The market is in a “silent period” on the eve of breaking through the key pressure level (P1), accumulating energy below the resistance. The high-probability strategy is to wait for a breakout of P1 followed by retest confirmation for long entries, and to be cautious with short positions below the resistance. Abandon cleverness; rely on the natural barriers of supply and demand (range boundaries) to set fixed risk traps.
Using an unchanging 1:1 risk-reward ratio, let the market’s inertia pay the reward. By consistently executing this simple, repetitive system, you will achieve stable profits.

The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; be aware of market risks. Readers must conduct rational analysis, make cautious decisions, and bear the risks themselves.