In the past two weeks, EIA data has shown unusual phenomena. Inventory increases far exceeded expectations — during the week of December 26, inventories surged by 2.934 million barrels, while the market only expected an increase of 1.8 million barrels, a full 60% more. Refined oil product inventories also rose accordingly, directly reflecting a problem: the winter heating demand in Europe and the US is not as strong as imagined.

The momentum of the global crude oil demand recovery is indeed weakening. Although OPEC+ still insists on the production cut agreement, the enforcement is uncertain. Coupled with slight increases in production from Nigeria and Venezuela, the supply side was already trying to support prices, but now even this support is becoming somewhat fragile.

From the pricing perspective, the US dollar index remains firmly at the high level of 97.5, which is a continuous pressure on USD-denominated crude oil. When liquidity tightens at the end of the year, price volatility tends to increase, and many traders choose to short at this time.

From a technical standpoint, the hourly Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating a typical weak pattern. The key point is that overnight rebound to the middle band was rejected by a long upper shadow, a classic "rebound meets resistance" pattern — fully consistent with the characteristic of "hitting the middle band" in a downtrend. The bearish structure is clear.

From a trading perspective, 62.0 is the first entry point. Here, the hourly middle band and MA10 form a resonance resistance, with a very clear selling pressure signal. When MACD shows a bearish divergence and rebounds to this level, the probability of a bearish reversal is high.

Consider adding positions at 62.3. The upper boundary of the descending channel is at this level, and the MA20 is also nearby, forming a double resistance with the "trendline + moving average." The recent rebound high is right next to it, and the double pressure from trapped longs and bears can easily trigger a sharp decline.

The defensive level is at 62.6. This is the resistance of the recent short-term downtrend line and also the upper boundary of the previous consolidation platform. If a clear breakout occurs here, the bearish structure on the hourly chart will be broken, and the moving averages may turn bullish directly. A golden cross on MACD with increased volume could indicate a short-term trend shift from bearish to bullish. Set the stop-loss at this level to effectively avoid reversal risks.

Overall, the strategy is: buy at 62.0, add at 62.3, defend at 62.6, with targets around 61.1-60.7.

(Only personal opinion, not investment advice)