Liquidity exhaustion, the risk of a "painting gate" market re-emerges.

Last night, after the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, market doubts were further confirmed. The general consensus among Fed officials is that returning inflation to the 2% target will not happen overnight. Especially since tariffs remain unresolved, this means that prices may stay high longer than market expectations.

Q3 GDP performed well, but the employment sector has already shown signs of fatigue. The number of unemployment benefit claims continues to rise, creating a disconnect where "economic data looks good, but employment remains sluggish." This divergence has led to clear disagreements within the Fed about the pace of rate cuts. Expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 still exist, but the specific timetable is uncertain. The January FOMC meeting is likely to hold steady, with the real turning point expected only in March. The overall trend remains accommodative, but more concrete data is needed for validation.

Turning back to BTC's chart, the current situation is quite clear. Around $87,000, a massive amount of chips has accumulated, forming a solid support level. Looking further down, the price range of $84,500 to $87,000 has accumulated over 1.7 million BTC, with substantial buy-side depth. The market has reached a fragile equilibrium here, only waiting for a strong external stimulus to break the deadlock.

In the longer term, the current oscillations do resemble several previous accumulation phases in history. Until the direction is clear, this back-and-forth may continue.

Currently, during the New Year holiday with extremely low liquidity, large market moves are difficult to unfold. Holding the upper boundary of the $83,000 to $87,000 range is already a good result.

$87,000 is the recent defense line, while $90,000 is the resistance. The market needs sufficient volume to break through these key levels. Without a volume-driven breakout, it’s just staying in place.