Since mid-November, BTC volatility has significantly narrowed, and three bottom formations still haven't created new lows. This signal is worth pondering.

From a technical perspective, we are currently in the weekly B-wave rebound stage. The first resistance level is around 94,500, and the extreme rebound range is expected to be between 97,000 and 100,000. However, on a larger scale, the MACD on the monthly chart has already formed a death cross at a high level, which is not very optimistic—next year, the downward trend is likely to dominate, and the key support level of $80,000 will probably be tested.

To put it simply, some voices are now advocating that next year Bitcoin will surge to 200,000 or 300,000, but such predictions are overly optimistic. Friends who support these views might consider blocking those accounts that are calling for such predictions to avoid being led astray. BTC will definitely reach those heights in the future, but the timeline won't be next year.

Interestingly, the most resilient assets in the current market are gold and silver. Gold is expected to surge to $5,000 next year. Using quantitative software for trading, the stability and returns are quite good.

The current macro environment is under significant pressure. Geopolitical tensions and global fluctuations show no signs of turning around in the short term. When the crypto market is in a downturn, holding on blindly is pointless. Counter-trend trading will only increase losses. It's better to take this opportunity to adjust strategies, such as allocating some physical gold or, if interested in the foreign exchange gold market, shifting focus to these areas.