H Protocol experienced a significant rally on December 29, with a 15% surge within a few hours. The open interest also rose to $57.5 million, indicating a clear increase in bullish sentiment. However, the rally was short-lived, and the price quickly retreated to the support level around 0.16. Over the past week, it has been oscillating between 0.15 and 0.18, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still not strong enough.

From a technical perspective, the daily RSI remains around 60, and the OBV indicator continues to show strength. These signals indeed suggest that the bulls still hold some control. But the issue is that on January 25, a significant unlock event will occur—1.05 billion H tokens will be released into the market, bringing an estimated liquidity impact of about $17.56 million. Currently, only 23% of the total supply is in circulation, and the long-term dilution pressure remains a looming threat, like the Sword of Damocles hanging overhead.

From a trading standpoint, the key levels are clear: if the price can hold above and break through the resistance at 0.18, the bulls may initiate a strong upward move; conversely, if it falls below the support at 0.15, a bearish signal will gradually establish. For short-term traders, it’s advisable to observe the breakout direction of the range first and avoid rushing into chasing highs or bottom-fishing.