#数字资产市场动态 Recently took a close look at $BTC and $ETH 's ETF capital flows. The data points to one issue—30 consecutive days of large net outflows.

This is not just minor fluctuations; it has a tangible impact on recent market conditions. From the capital perspective, there is no active willingness for new funds to enter; instead, it looks more like large institutions are trimming positions at this year-end point. Rebalancing? Not visible for now.

Looking at the technical side, the situation is also not very optimistic. Bitcoin's daily chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, with trading volume continuously shrinking—indicating a clear lack of market participation. Although the bulls are still holding on, they are clearly just hard-pressed. Once the price starts weakening, it usually doesn't bounce back naturally but instead drops rapidly to deleverage and liquidate. Therefore, this upward breakout can basically be considered a phase failure.

However, in the medium term, it won't be a one-sided decline. My forecast is as follows:

December will likely remain in a weak oscillation → January may see a technical rebound → followed by another pressure-driven decline

The reason is quite straightforward. End-of-year liquidity is tight, and risk appetite generally declines. But with the new year, reallocation of funds and market sentiment recovery tend to trigger a rebound. The problem is, before genuine incremental capital flows back, this rebound is likely to be structural and not a trend reversal.

Simply put:

In the short term, both capital and technical structures cannot support a strong bullish trend. The current breakout has already failed, and it will take time to digest high-level positions. Although there might be a rebound window in January, it’s more of a "catch your breath" opportunity, not a sign of a new bull market.

In such an uncertain environment, more than predicting the direction, it’s crucial to focus on risk control—manage positions well, lower expectations, and patiently wait for clearer signals. The market won't run away, but making mistakes during this ambiguous period often results in amplified costs.