#数字资产市场动态 The Federal Reserve's movements in 2026 have become an intractable issue.

What is the current situation? The interest rate is currently at 3.5%-3.75%. It looks like it has been lowered, but in reality, it’s only moved a little from the high levels of recent years; fundamentally, it’s still tight. Liquidity hasn’t loosened significantly; at best, it’s just not as restrictive as before.

What truly causes the market’s rollercoaster is the uncertainty surrounding 2026.

Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are very apparent. From the dot plot, opinions on rate cuts and how many times to cut are almost evenly split. This inherent inconsistency is easily amplified by the market, leading to inevitable price volatility.

The interest rate market also remains quite conservative. The probability of a rate cut in January is only about 20%, and in March, just over 40%—this indicates that traders don’t believe the Fed will quickly shift to easing.

Ultimately, the core contradiction is this: employment is weakening, but inflation isn’t fully subdued. On one side, job opportunities for middle- and low-income groups are shrinking, and consumer pressure is rising; on the other side, inflation has fallen somewhat but remains above the target level, with tariffs and costs still supporting the floor.

That’s why Powell has been emphasizing "risk management." He doesn’t want to push the economy into a deep recession, but also doesn’t dare loosen too quickly, fearing a rebound in inflation.

For crypto traders, one key point is: **Expectations often weigh more than the actual outcomes**.

If the market has already priced in rate cuts in advance, the actual implementation might become a "兑现窗口"—making the market less favorable for trading. What truly drives the market is the market’s re-evaluation of the future liquidity outlook.

To summarize the logic:
If employment continues to decline and inflation is gradually controlled, one or two rate cuts in 2026 are likely to benefit risk assets; conversely, if inflation re-emerges, the Fed will urgently step on the brakes, and market pressure will quickly resurface.

There are also some variables that cannot be ignored—such as the impact of Japan’s rate hikes on yen arbitrage, and the policy orientation of the new chair after Powell’s departure.

All these factors combined suggest that volatility in 2026 will not be small. Instead of repeatedly betting on "rate cuts being bullish," it’s better to focus on data, officials’ statements, and subtle developments.

The market’s pricing logic is changing—from simple, crude narratives to more nuanced pricing of different paths and divergences.