#比特币价格走势 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from a high level to 25%, this signal is quite worth pondering. Market sentiment is indeed cooling down, but I am more concerned about the underlying logic—declining forecast probabilities often mean that big funds are re-evaluating the risk-reward ratio.

This is the most testing time for following trades. I have observed the recent position adjustments of several traders with different styles and found two obvious divergences: one group is positioning defensively, reducing position sizes and raising stop-loss levels; the other is adding to positions on dips, betting on a sentiment-driven oversold rebound. Both strategies have their logic; the key depends on your own risk tolerance.

If you are following aggressive traders, you need to be alert at this point— a sharp decline in forecast probability indicates that market participants are changing their stance, and the pace of following trades may need to adjust accordingly. Conversely, if you are following conservative traders, they usually have already automated the mitigation of such emotional fluctuations through position sizing.

Experience tells me that a turning point in forecast probability is often a precursor to stop-loss being triggered. Instead of worrying about whether $100,000 can be reached, it’s better to clearly identify which style of expert you are following and then adjust your position allocation accordingly—this is the correct attitude for surviving and making money.