2025-12-31 02:25:34

Stablecoin fluctuations trigger alarm bells. The devaluation of USDT off-exchange prices has gone beyond the scope of "slight deviation from pegged price," evolving into a market signal that cannot be ignored.

Just look at the current off-exchange quotes: the USDT to RMB transaction price has already fallen to 6.82, while at the same time, the USD spot exchange rate in the foreign exchange market remains steady at 7.01. In other words, exchanging USDT for RMB is now more costly than converting USD through the official channels. The negative price spread has broken through 3%, far exceeding the level at the beginning of the month.

This persistent widening of the discount is indeed abnormal. Normally, deviations in stablecoin prices are caused by short-term liquidity tightness or the costs of exchange channels, and they tend to revert quickly to the peg. But the current situation is that USDT’s discount is not only failing to converge but is actually expanding step by step. This is definitely not just emotional volatility; it reflects a structural selling pressure that is continuously building up.

The underlying logic behind the ongoing weakness off-exchange is quite simple: someone is大量、持续地 selling USDT for fiat currency, while there are very few takers. Such large-scale, organized selling is unlikely to come from retail investors. It more resembles large funds being forced or choosing to reduce their crypto holdings after a sharp decline in risk appetite.

Another point that deserves attention is that the USD in the foreign exchange market has not weakened simultaneously. This indicates that the current USDT discount is not due to "the dollar depreciating," but is purely a result of the crypto market actively abandoning it. The loss of premium and even deep discount in stablecoins does not reflect changes in the global dollar cycle but rather a vote of no confidence from within the crypto ecosystem.

Looking back at history, every time USDT experiences persistent negative premium, it always involves one of two situations: one is that risk assets are still under pressure, and capital outflows are far from ending; the other is that the market is issuing an early warning of deeper liquidity tightening.

It is still difficult to predict which direction the market will move, but one thing is certain—this is definitely not a small signal that can be ignored. When even stablecoins start being sold at a loss, it indicates that the entire crypto market’s tolerance for risk is quietly approaching a breaking point.

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Degentleman

· 4h ago

Large funds are moving, this time it's really different. USDT is starting to break below the bottom line. --- That price of 6.82... how much loss does that represent? Instead of saying stablecoins are unstable, it's more like someone is liquidating their position. --- Haha, the US dollar hasn't depreciated, but cryptocurrencies are being abandoned. How bearish is that... Risk tolerance is approaching the freezing point, truly. --- The alarm bells for liquidity tightening are ringing. Are there still people buying USDT? --- This isn't the kind of sell-off retail investors can cause. Big players are fleeing, we need to keep up with the pace.

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GasFeeCryer

· 4h ago

Oh my, a 3% discount, big players are dumping the market --- That price of 6.82 is really incredible, holders must be so anxious --- The US dollar hasn't moved but USDT has depreciated like this? That's outrageous --- Is this the prelude to liquidity tightening? Sounds ominous --- They're starting to run again, huh? Same old trick every time --- This time feels really different, large funds are clearing out --- Wait, have you guys noticed that they've done this several times before? --- If stablecoins can't even hold their value, what's the point of playing? --- Continuous dumping indicates that a change is coming --- Freezing point approaching, this headline is really bold --- It's just asking when the big players will run away --- Here they go again, signals are everywhere --- A negative spread of 3% is no small matter

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FloorSweeper

· 4h ago

6.82... This is outrageous, large funds are fleeing --- Stablecoins are all being sold at a discount, it's really alarming --- Here we go again, every time we get this kind of signal, it ends with a crash --- Wait, isn't the US dollar weak and USDT falling? Then it's purely a sell-off --- It looks like big institutions are liquidating, retail investors wouldn't have such large sums --- Risk appetite has been pushed to the freezing point, this time it's quite uncertain --- The prelude to liquidity tightening has begun --- Exchanging USDT for RMB is not even better than direct conversion, damn it --- Feels like history is about to repeat itself, after the last time, things haven't been good

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 4h ago

At 6.82, I knew the supply line was broken. --- Again with this pattern. Historically, every time USDT discounts exceed 3%, it’s never just a false alarm. --- The smell of large funds fleeing, retail investors are always the last to know. --- Widening discounts without convergence? Survival first, halve your positions and then consider. --- If even the anchor can't hold, this wave is truly different. Is the freezing point still far away? --- A negative premium of 3% is a declaration of war. Risk hedging should be on the agenda. --- USD still at 7.01, but USDT is being sold cheaply. The logic is clear— the market is abandoning ship. --- Having seen too many cycles, it always starts like this. --- Continuous selling ≠ emotional volatility; this is structural flight. Be cautious.

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