This wave of Bitcoin market looks like it's about to take off, but it's actually still in the final preparation stage.

The MVRV Z-Score has fallen to -0.24, what does this indicate? The price has already pierced through most people's cost basis. The market is showing widespread unrealized losses, but don't rush to think this is the bottom — this only suggests that the risk has been largely released, and it's not the time for a reversal yet.

History gives us a clear answer: as long as the MVRV stays in the negative zone for an extended period, it usually indicates a bottoming process rather than a trend reversal. More painfully, the Binary CDD SMA 7 has recently triggered frequently, meaning that long-term holders are starting to reduce their positions in a planned manner. Such operations generally won't immediately push prices higher; instead, they tend to lead to several months of sideways consolidation, as the chips find new owners during this process.

Looking back at March and November 2024, after the CDD signals appeared, the market took several months to digest, with prices fluctuating within a certain range until a new market consensus was formed. The current situation is like laying the foundation — valuations are already very low, but investor confidence hasn't stabilized yet, and chips are still changing hands. This is not the most desperate moment, nor the best entry point, but a phase where patience is required.

Regarding miners, they have also started to stop selling. The Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) has fallen to -0.90, hitting a new low since October 2024. Miners are no longer selling, and selling pressure naturally diminishes. This point shouldn't be underestimated — miners' actions often reflect the true supply-side pressure in the market.