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A true storm is brewing, and its arrival is closer than most people think—specifically in 2026.
The US government holds trillions of dollars in debt that will mature in that year. Don't mistake the timing—it's not 2030, not 2040, but precisely 2026. The key issue lies in the history of this debt: most of it was borrowed in an environment close to zero interest rates. Now, the situation has completely reversed; the era of high interest rates has arrived, meaning all this debt will need to be refinanced in a high-cost environment.
There is only one outcome: interest expenses will inevitably skyrocket, and this is no longer a prediction but a matter of mathematics.
Faced with this scenario, policymakers have only three options on the table. First, significantly increase taxes. Second, deeply cut public spending. Third, allow the dollar to depreciate to dilute the debt burden. But none of these options are easy; each will trigger a chain reaction. If none of these are chosen or if they are poorly executed, this ticking time bomb will eventually explode on its own.
When a country's sovereign debt of this scale matures within such a tight timeframe, no asset in the market can remain unaffected. Stocks will be re-priced, bonds will be re-priced, real estate will be impacted, and even the cryptocurrency market will be swept into this wave of global asset revaluation. The relative value relationships among various assets will be disrupted, and investors need to be prepared for this.