2025-12-31 01:22:00

There is an interesting market phenomenon worth noting. When an asset's return exceeds 15% in the previous year, its performance in January tends to be quite weak—the average decline is about -0.04%, with only a 50% chance of gains. In comparison, since 1950, the average January return has been +1.07%, with a 60% chance of positive performance. The difference is significant.

Why does this happen? It mainly involves two factors. One is investors taking profits after a strong year, and the other is institutional portfolio rebalancing. The combination of these two forces often leads to a weak market trend in January. Although the crypto market is more volatile, this cyclical pattern is also worth considering for traders.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MetadataExplorer

· 5h ago

Damn, it's that old, tired conclusion about taking profits again... Why does no one consider that retail investors are also bottom-fishing?

View OriginalReply0

MerkleMaid

· 5h ago

It's the same old tune again—taking profits and rebalancing positions. I'm tired of hearing it, haha. But can the crypto market really play around with these kinds of patterns?

View OriginalReply0

BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 5h ago

Another "pattern" huh? Last year, it surged a lot and then weakened in January? Sounds like a story to give FOMOers a scare haha. The thing is, in crypto, breaking patterns has always been the norm. A 15% increase is nothing... I actually want to see when big institutions start truly taking profits, that’s the real key.

View OriginalReply0

ForkTongue

· 5h ago

Another "pattern," sounds pretty intimidating, but I bet five bucks that someone still gets liquidated every month haha

View OriginalReply0

rekt_but_not_broke

· 5h ago

It's the same old argument about taking profits... Assets that increased by over 15% last year already faded in January? Why am I not that obedient? The last time I saw this data, I went all in reverse.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-9f682d4c

· 5h ago

It's the same old trick of taking profits and cashing out, happening every January... sounds familiar, but the patterns in crypto aren't that rigid. Last year, several coins increased by over 50% annually and still hit new highs in January.

View OriginalReply0