#美联储利率政策 Non-farm payroll data is coming, and the conflicting signals in the market are worth paying attention to. Citigroup's forecasting model shows a month-over-month decline of 45,000 jobs in October, with a rebound of 80,000 in November, but this volatility is more due to seasonal adjustments rather than genuine demand improvement — this is key.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, which is basically in line with the Federal Reserve's own median forecast of 4.5%, but Reuters survey samples still maintain 4.4%, indicating that market consensus is still wavering. Within the Federal Reserve, disagreements over the priority of inflation versus employment are already quite clear, and next week's data is likely to trigger the next policy adjustment.

From an on-chain perspective, such macro expectation uncertainties usually increase the wait-and-see sentiment among large funds. It is recommended to monitor whale addresses' deposit/withdrawal patterns before and after the report, as well as the flow of Stablecoins — these often reflect institutional risk pricing more early than public opinion. The more conflicting signals there are, the more sensitive the on-chain reaction will be.