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【FOMC Divisions Widen, Rate Cut Outlook Changes】
As of December 31st, the latest news indicates that the situation is a bit delicate based on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Tuesday. The decision at last month's meeting was clear, but there was underlying tension among the attending officials—many of them showed reservations about continuing to ease policy. What does this mean? In plain terms, a rate cut at the January meeting might not be as straightforward as before.
Why is this happening? The core reason is quite sobering: the persistence of inflation has exceeded the Fed's expectations. They previously thought inflation could be alleviated quickly, but it now seems they were a bit naive. Coupled with recent economic data showing that consumer spending remains strong and economic growth is accelerating. Although the unemployment rate has slightly risen, it’s not enough to change the overall picture.
The issue is: strong economic data means there’s no rush to cut rates. Additionally, new economic data will be released in January, which is likely to further influence Fed officials’ judgments. In other words, the upcoming weeks’ data could completely rewrite the pace of rate cuts. For the crypto market, this turning point warrants close attention.