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The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a lot of valuable information. Participants generally have a positive outlook for the 2026 economic prospects, expecting growth to accelerate significantly and maintain a pace of expansion in line with potential output in the medium term.
What supports this optimistic outlook? There are mainly three aspects—possible adjustments to fiscal policy and regulatory policies, as well as conditions in the financial markets that remain relatively favorable. This is a positive signal for liquidity conditions.
However, there is a noteworthy detail: participants' forecasts for GDP growth remain uncertain, and a cautious attitude has not dissipated.
Even more interesting is the discussion about artificial intelligence. Some participants pointed out that the expansion of AI applications and technological advancements have the potential to boost economic growth without pushing up prices. In other words, growth may occur without inflationary pressures—this will have a sustained impact on risk-free rate expectations. But on the flip side, these structural dividends could also suppress employment demand.
Overall, the expectation of relatively loose policies combined with AI-driven growth stories has historically driven capital flows into risk assets (including the crypto market). However, macroeconomic uncertainties remain, and investors should stay vigilant.