Recently, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its meeting. On the surface, everything seems calm, but in reality, there are underlying currents. Everyone was attracted by the word "rate cut," but a closer look reveals several issues embedded in the minutes that are hard to ignore.

First, let's talk about dissenting votes. The number of dissenting votes in this set of minutes reached a recent high. What does this indicate? It shows that there is complete disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the economic outlook. If a policy committee can't agree on which direction the economy is heading, how can we dare to make bets?

Next, look at the inflation data. The minutes repeatedly mention the "stickiness" of service sector inflation, implying that it is very difficult to bring down. We are still far from the 2% target, which means that even if interest rates are cut, inflationary pressures will persist. The coexistence of rate cuts and inflation is not a good sign historically.

What is most troubling is the uncertainty about the policy path. The minutes do not make a clear commitment on the future course, only stating "data will speak." This means the Fed's next move could change at any time, and the market lacks a clear anchor for expectations.

What is really going on with this rate cut? Don't be fooled by the term "rate cut." A careful analysis shows that this is not a sign of the Fed actively easing but rather a forced choice. The job market is cooling, but inflation remains stubborn. The Fed faces a dilemma: continuing to raise rates would harm employment, but not cutting rates would worsen the economy. So, this rate cut is more of a reluctant compromise than a sign of confidence.

Historical experience tells us that such passive easing often accompanies economic downward pressure. It is not the herald of a new cycle but a signal of slowing economic growth.

The most dangerous part is this: when there are serious disagreements within the decision-making circle, subsequent policies will be full of uncertainties. The market will fall into high-frequency volatility, with prices driven more by emotions than fundamentals, leading to repeated cycles of profit-taking. In such an environment, high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Dogecoin are definitely not good news.

Therefore, do not simply interpret a rate cut as a positive signal. A rate cut does not mean a bull market is coming, and easing does not mean risks are eliminated. The current situation is more like: risks are being pushed back, but not truly resolved. Projects that rely on narrative hype and have weak fundamentals may see sharper declines once market expectations reverse.

The survival rule at this stage is: controlling your positions is more important than chasing gains; staying alive is more important than missing out. The real big opportunities are always reserved for those who see through the risks. Until the macro situation becomes fully clear, prudence should be the top priority.